SunSirs: Terminal Rreforming, China Local Refining Naphtha continues to Push Up

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, as of July 30, the average ex factory price of mainstream Naphtha of domestic local refining and hydrogenation was 8,131.50 RMB/ton, up 2.33% from 7,946.50 RMB/ton on July 24. The actual transaction price of Naphtha of local refining and hydrogenation was about 8,200 RMB/ton.

As of July 30, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run Naphtha mainstream was 8,009.00 RMB/ton, up 2.50% from 7,814.00 RMB/ton on July 24. The actual transaction price of local straight run Naphtha was about 8,000-8,100 RMB/ton.

On July 30, the Naphtha commodity index was 100.36, unchanged from yesterday, 17.49% lower than the cycle's highest point of 121.64 (2022-03-10), and 137.59% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

Last week, the price of locally refined Naphtha continued to rise. At the beginning of the week, the refinery actively pushed up, supported by the need for terminal restructuring, and the deal was good; The profit of terminal restructuring fell over the weekend, and the Naphtha market showed a downward trend.

Last week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose. On the one hand, supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment. Saudi Arabia and Russia announced new production reduction measures. In addition, the US Shale oil production has been in a bottleneck. The tightening of crude oil supply has become a major positive for the international oil market. On the other hand, there is significant support during the peak summer oil consumption season, with North America experiencing a peak in summer oil consumption. In addition, with increasing demand from China, international oil market prices continue to rise. Finally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is nearing the end, and the superposition of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data report on Wednesday shows that the crude oil inventory declined. Multiple positive factors support the sustained rise of international oil prices.

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of toluene increased last week. On July 30th, the price of toluene was 7,860 RMB/ton, and on July 24th, it was 7,490 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.94%. Last week, the price of mixed xylene increased. On July 30th, the price of mixed xylene was 8,090 RMB/ton, and on July 24th, it was 7,790 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.85%. The PX price trend was stable last week. On July 30, the ex factory price of P-Xylene was 8,500 RMB/ton, which was stable from July 24.

The energy analysts of SunSirs believe that the price of locally refined Naphtha continues to rise in the near future, and the price is high. The downstream has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the purchasing enthusiasm has declined. In addition, the profit of terminal restructuring has declined, so there is no obvious benefit in ethylene. It is expected that the market of locally refined Naphtha will decline in the near future.

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