SunSirs: China SBR Picked Up in July and Prices Rose

The market of SBR rose in July. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 28th, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was at 11,725 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.53% from 11,325 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene and styrene rose significantly, and the cost focus of SBR rebounded significantly; In July, the commencement of downstream tire factories slightly rebounded compared with the earlier stage, slightly supporting SBR; In July, the ex factory price of SBR was raised at the beginning of the month. As of July 28, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company Jilin Petrochemical SBR 1502 Northeast Warehouse raised the price by 11,900 RMB/ton, and the domestic SBR 1502 market quotation range was around 11,600-12,100 RMB/ton.

In the first half of the month, Yibang SBR plant was shut down for maintenance, and the load of Shenhua Chemical SBR plant was reduced from Line 3 to Line 2 for operation on the 25th; In addition, the Lanhua Butadiene Plant is scheduled to restart by the end of July; Yibang Butadiene Plant plans to restart operation in August; On the whole, the operation of SBR unit in July fell slightly, but it is expected to increase later.

In July, the prices of butadiene and styrene, raw materials of SBR, rose significantly, and the cost focus of SBR moved up significantly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 28th, the price of butadiene was 7,201 RMB/ton, an increase of 20.56% from 5,973 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month; As of July 28th, the price of styrene was 8,125 RMB/ton, an increase of 13.42% from 7,163 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

In July, the natural rubber market fluctuated slightly higher but still remained at a low level, with a small price difference with SBR, which could not support SBR. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 28th, the price was at 11,960 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.27% from 11,810 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the cycle was 12,150 RMB/ton.

Demand side: The tire operating rate slightly increased in July, with a slightly stronger demand for rubber support compared to the previous period. It is understood that as of late July 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.2%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

SunSirs analysts believe that at present, the downstream construction has slightly improved compared with the early stage, but the supply side of SBR is expected to increase in the later stage. The supply and demand side forms a weak support for SBR, while the cost side is expected to run at a high level. On the whole, it is expected that the SBR will rise tentatively in the short term, and the price will increase in the supply side with the restart of some devices in the later stage or will be adjusted in a narrow range.

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