SunSirs: The Ammonium Chloride Market Rebounded Slightly in July

Price trend

The market price of ammonium chloride rebounded slightly in July. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the market price of dry ammonium chloride for agricultural use in East China was 622 RMB/ton as of July 29, up 4.62% from 595 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material liquid ammonia significantly increased, and the cost of ammonium chloride had rebounded; The price of urea skyrocketed, and from the perspective of substitutability, support for ammonium chloride had once again strengthened; The start of ammonium chloride production was around 80%, and the supply side was relatively loose; Downstream composite fertilizer production was still at a low level, with limited support for ammonium chloride; The construction of extruded ammonium chloride enterprises had improved, providing slight support for ammonium chloride. Some ammonium chloride enterprises received better new orders and increased their factory prices. As of July 29, the mainstream price of dry ammonium chloride for agricultural use in East China was 590~640 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

In July, the liquid ammonia market significantly increased, and the cost center of ammonium chloride rebounded. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 29th, the price of liquid ammonia was 3,350 RMB/ton, an increase of 24.07% from 2,700 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

In July, domestic urea prices significantly increased, strengthening support for ammonium chloride. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 29th, the domestic urea price was 2,607 RMB/ton, an increase of 15.17% from 2,263 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

Supply and demand side: As of July 29th, the operating rate of the domestic ammonium chloride industry was still around 80%, and the expected operating rate in August is basically stable. However, due to the continuous production of new production capacity, the supply side of ammonium chloride is expected to increase significantly in September; As of July 29th, the downstream composite fertilizer production in the off-season was at a low level, but due to the impact of high urea prices, the procurement of ammonium chloride had increased. In addition, the production of compressed particle enterprises had slightly increased, and overall demand support for ammonium chloride in July had strengthened compared to the previous period.

Market outlook

According to ammonium chloride analysts from SunSirs, the ammonium chloride industry chain is expected to maintain a marginal improvement trend in the short term, coupled with an increase in cost side. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market will slightly increase in the short term, but the market may weaken again at the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter due to an increase in supply side.

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