SunSirs: Poor Demand, Coke Market Continues to be Weak

1. Trend Analysis

Price: Price: According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the domestic coke market has gradually stabilized after two consecutive rounds of increase and decrease, and the follow-up market is still not optimistic. At present, the mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Shanghai are 1,930 RMB/ton and 2,000 RMB/ton respectively; in Xuzhou are 1,910 RMB/ton and 1,980 RMB/ton; in Weifang, Shandong are 1,850 RMB/ton and 1,900 RMB/ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province are 1,750 RMB/ton and 1,800 RMB/ton; in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province are 1,840 RMB/ton and 1,900 RMB/ton; in Shenyang, Liaoning Province are 1,870 RMB/ton and 1,930 RMB/ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province are 1,860 RMB/ton and 1,950 RMB/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan, Hebei Province are 1,840 RMB/ton and 1,990 RMB/ton; in Tianjin are 1,850 RMB/ton and 1,950 RMB/ton. The mainstream prices of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan Province, Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou province and Ordos coke market are 2,080 RMB/ton, 2,230 RMB/ton and 1,500 RMB/ton respectively. The price of primary metallurgical coke in port trade is about 2,100 RMB/ton, of quasi-primary is about 2,000 RMB/ton, and of secondary is about 1,900 RMB/ton.

Products: At present, the domestic coke market has been running steadily after two consecutive rounds of increase and decrease, with a cumulative reduction of about 200 RMB/ton. The overall start-up rate of coke enterprises is relatively stable, and coke supply is relatively sufficient, but the overall market trading situation is flat, leading to some coke enterprises inventory increase. Although there is no obvious sales pressure for coke enterprises at present, the market pessimism is still continuing. The downstream steel plants are still limited by environmental factors. The coke stock of the steel plants remains high and the purchase of coke is just needed. On the port side, the trading situation is still weak, and traders mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude towards coke purchase.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 35th week (9.2-9.6) of 2019, there were nine kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, one of which rose more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were dimethyl ether (5.56%), methanol (4.81%) and MTBE (4.43%). There were five kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio. The first three products falling were coke (-3.74%), coking coal (-1.36%) and liquefied gas (-0.63%).

2. Market Forecast

SunSirs’ Coke analysts believe that the overall supply of coke enterprises is sufficient and the stock of some enterprises has increased slightly. After two consecutive rounds of price reduction, the profit of coke enterprises has reached a low level. However, in order to avoid excessive storage pressure, coke enterprises are still actively shipping. Towards the National Day, the downstream steel plants have a stricter trend of production restriction and a higher average stock level, enterprises buy on demand, coke and steel game sentiment is strong, the coke market is expected to be stable in the near future weak.

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