SunSirs: China BR Market Rose

The market of BR rose in the first half of July. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of July 15, the price of BR in East China was 10,830 RMB/ton, up 4.03% from 10,410 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw butadiene rebounded at a low level, and the cost focus of BR rebounded; In the first half of the month, the supply price of BR was gradually raised, and the merchant's offer rose with each passing day. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of July 15, the ex factory price of BR of Sinopec North China Sales Company had reported 10,700 RMB/ton. As of July 15, the mainstream market of BR in East China, such as Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi, Sichuan, Qixiang, Zhenhua, had reported 10,700-11,000 RMB/ton.

In the first half of July, Qixiang, Wanda and other BR devices were shut down, and the operating rate of BR decreased slightly, but in the later period, due to the restart of some devices, the operating rate will increase.

In the first half of the month, the low price of raw butadiene rebounded significantly, and the cost focus of BR rebounded. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 15th, the price of butadiene was 6,781 RMB/ton, an increase of 13.53% from last Monday's 5,973 RMB/ton.

Natural rubber market rose slightly in the first half of the month, slightly supporting BR. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 15th, the price of natural rubber was 12,150 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.88% from last Monday's 11,810 RMB/ton.

In the first half of the month, the tire operating rate gradually increased slightly, and the demand for rubber just needed support slightly improved. It is understood that as of mid July 2023, the operating load of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province is 6.3% for all steel tires and around 7.2% for half steel tires.

Future market forecast: analysts from SunSirs believe that the cost of BR is supported by the soaring raw material prices. In the first half of the month, Qixiang Tengda and Wanda shut down a total of 140,000 tons/year of BR, and BR started to decline slightly. However, many devices are planned to restart in the later period, and the pressure on the supply side of BR is expected to increase; The downstream construction started slightly, which has certain support for BR, but the support is limited at present; To sum up, it is expected that BR will consolidate after rising in the short term. In the medium and long term, if the cost and demand continue to support, BR may have the opportunity to continue to rise.

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