SunSirs: Minor Consolidation of China BR Market

Recently (April 1-4.12), the market situation of BR has slightly improved. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of April 12th, the price of BR in the East China region was 13,660 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.37% from 13,610 RMB/ton on April 1st. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost of BR continues to support; The supply of BR has slightly declined; Downstream tire production has remained stable, with on-demand procurement of BR. The price of BR has mainly narrowed after a significant increase in the early stage.

Recently (4.1-4.12), the price of butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost support for BR is strong. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of April 12th, the price of butadiene was 11,700 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.52% from 11,525 RMB/ton on April 1st.

Recently (from April 1st to April 12th), the production of BR has slightly rebounded: Zhejiang Chuanhua Synthetic Materials Company's 100,000 tons/year BR and 50,000 tons/year nickel/rare earth (neodymium) BR plants will be shut down for maintenance starting from March 25th, 2024, and will resume operation starting from April 10th.

Demand side: In the near future (4.1~4.12), downstream tire production is mainly stable, maintaining rigid support for BR. It is understood that as of early April, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 80%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is close to 68%; But there is resistance from downstream towards high priced Shunding and a small amount of stocking.

SunSirs analysts believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost support for BR is strong; Some early stage equipment has recently restarted, and there are also some equipment plans for maintenance in the later stage. The expected start of production of BR is expected to remain low; The cost and start of production will continue to support the market for BR. However, although downstream tire companies are still operating at a relatively high level, their resistance to the high priced supply of BR has resulted in less than expected procurement efforts, putting pressure on the BR market. Overall, the current BR market may consolidate in the later stage.

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