SunSirs: Real Estate Completion Support, with Glass market prices rising in the first half of 2023 in China

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the spot market of glass rose from January to June 2023, with an average price of 18.68 RMB/square meter in the monitoring area on January 1. On June 30, the average price fell to 21.35 RMB/square meter, with a comprehensive increase of 14.29% in the first half of the year.

Looking at the market development from January to June 2023, there was a stock hoarding and a rise in glass prices before the Spring Festival in January. The resumption of real estate work and production in February was less than expected, and glass prices fell. Policy optimization from March to April resulted in a rapid rise in glass prices. The phased replenishment in May came to an end, with glass rising first and then falling. Market confidence was weak in June, with glass falling.

In the first quarter, the spot price of glass from January to March was fluctuating, with an overall price increase of 5.62%. At the end of March, the average price was 19.73 RMB/square meter.

In the second quarter, from April to June, the spot price of glass first rose and then fell, and the overall price increased, with a cumulative increase of 8.21%. At the end of June, the average price was 21.35 RMB/square meter.

In terms of production capacity, statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the cumulative production of flat glass from January to May 2023 was 389 million weight boxes, a year-on-year decrease of 8.30%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to January April. Among them, the monthly production in May was 79.62 million weight boxes, a year-on-year decrease of 9.40%, and a month on month increase of 1.14%.

In terms of inventory, according to industry statistics, as of June 29, the total inventory of Float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 55.739 million heavy boxes, an increase of 0.89% week on week or 492 thousand heavy boxes, a year-on-year decrease of 30.65%, and the number of days converted into inventory increased by 0.2 to 24 days compared with the previous period.

Customs statistics: According to customs data, the import volume of glass in May 2023 was 17,500 tons, an increase of 30% year-on-year and a decrease of 21% month on month; The cumulative import volume of Chinese glass from January to May 2023 was 85,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19%, and the import volume decreased by approximately 20,400 tons. In May 2023, the export volume of glass was 60,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2% and a month on month decrease of 20%; The cumulative export volume of Chinese glass from January to May 2023 was 324,600 tons, an increase of 30% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume increased by approximately 76,000 tons.

On the upstream side, according to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the trend of soda ash decreased from January to June. On January 1st, the average market price of soda ash was 2,648 RMB/ton. On June 30th, the average market price was around 1,960 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 25.98%. The domestic liquefied natural gas market fell from January to June. On January 1st, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 6,176 RMB/ton, and on June 30th, it was 4,296 RMB/ton. The domestic price of liquefied natural gas has decreased by 30.44%.

In terms of downstream investment, real estate development investment decreased by 7.20% year-on-year from January to May 2023, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points compared to January to April. The cumulative decline in real estate investment has expanded. According to single month data, real estate investment in May reached 1.02 trillion yuan, a month on month increase of 6.77%, and a year-on-year decrease of 21.52%. According to the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in May 2023, China's automobile production and sales completed 2.333 million and 2.382 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 21.1% and 27.9%, respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 713,000 and 717,000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 53% and 60.2%, respectively.

According to the prediction of the business community, the glass market transaction is relatively flexible in the near future, the price of soda ash is stable and dynamic, and the domestic LNG price is volatile, with acceptable cost support. Downstream traders and processing enterprises should be cautious and wait, and purchase according to demand. It is expected that in the short term, the glass Spot market will mainly operate in shock, and more attention should be paid to the recovery of glass production capacity and the completion of real estate.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.