SunSirs: China MTBE Market fluctuated and declined in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market has fluctuated and declined. From June 1st to 27th, the price of MTBE dropped from 7,300 RMB/ton to 7,087 RMB/ton, with a decrease of 2.91% and a maximum amplitude of 5.41% during the cycle. The price fell by 16.62% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, after the initial price rose to a certain high level, downstream resistance occurred, and manufacturers' shipments gradually slowed down, with the main focus on profit and volume. At the same time, Shandong Minghao, Dongying Shenchi, and Shandong Chengtai have successively started construction, and the tight spot supply situation is gradually easing. However, the positive demand side has limited boost, coupled with a significant decline in international crude oil, causing the MTBE market to decline in a volatile manner.

In the middle of the month, the demand for gasoline shipping orders and other goods was well supported, and MTBE manufacturers' offers were firm, making it difficult to find low-priced resources. As the demand side gradually improved, the spot supply gradually increased after multiple MTBE devices began operating, and the MTBE market price narrowed down.

In the latter half of the month, the operating rate of the device was high, and the resource supply was still relatively abundant. The market resistance was significant, and the MTBE market price was mainly subject to narrow fluctuations.

On the cost side, the crude oil market price range fluctuated in June. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.37 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.35 per barrel. On the one hand, from the perspective of the global economic situation, the Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate hikes has not yet ended and will not cut rates. Macroeconomic pressure is increasing, and the oil market is under pressure. On the other hand, OPEC+ has announced two production cuts, coupled with the increase in China's refining and processing volume, which has boosted international oil prices. The demand during the summer oil peak season has supported, and the international oil price market has been boosted.

In terms of demand and gasoline, with the appearance of hot weather, the use rate of air conditioners in private cars has increased. In addition, the Dragon Boat Festival in June has formed a certain support for gasoline consumption, so the demand for gasoline is guaranteed. In addition, some businesses have replenished their stocks after the holiday, so the price of gasoline market has risen. The demand side of MTBE is biased towards positive factors.

On the enterprise side, the Shouguang Luqing, Dongming Qianhai, and Debao Road installations have started construction one after another, with expectations of increased resource supply, and manufacturers are gradually facing increasing shipping pressure. Early maintenance companies are gradually starting construction, and the supply of MTBE is gradually increasing, with a bearish impact on the supply side.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on June 26th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $1.31/ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $953.68-955.68/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $4/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $976.99- $977.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $6.46/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $902.15-902.51/ton (254.13-254.23 cents per gallon).

In the future, most manufacturers will maintain normal operations, with abundant spot supply and relatively weak terminal demand. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

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