SunSirs: China Refining Naphtha was Weak and Shocked (June 19-26)

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, as of June 25, the average ex factory price of the mainstream Naphtha of domestic local refining and hydrogenation was 7,964.00 RMB/ton, down 0.09% from 7,971.50 RMB/ton on June 19. The actual transaction price of local refining and hydrogenation Naphtha was about 7,800-8,000 RMB/ton.

As of June 25, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run Naphtha mainstream was 7,876.50 RMB/ton, down 0.79% from 7,939.00 RMB/ton on June 19. The actual transaction price of local straight run Naphtha was about 7,700-7,900 RMB/ton.

On June 25, the Naphtha commodity index was 98.29, down 0.15 points from yesterday, down 19.20% from the cycle's highest point of 121.64 (2022-03-10), and up 132.69% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

The price of locally refined Naphtha dropped slightly last week. Reforming and ethylene just need to be stocked. Refinery shipments are active, market turnover is light, and businesses are mainly wait-and-see.

The international crude oil market has declined last week. Mainly due to the expected impact of interest rate hikes by European central banks and further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, demand side pressure is evident, overshadowing the positive data on US oil inventories. The recent macroeconomic pressure is still difficult to alleviate, and the market is seeking a rebalancing of supply and demand. The oil market will maintain a weak and volatile situation.

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of toluene has slightly increased last week. On June 19th, the price of toluene was 7,080.00 RMB/ton, and on June 25th, it was 7,110.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.42%. Last week, the price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend. On June 19th, the price of mixed xylene was 7,210 RMB/ton, and on June 25th, it was 7,380 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.36%. The PX price trend last week was temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of P-Xylene in China was 8,200 RMB/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

The energy analysts of SunSirs believe that the international crude oil is going down last week, and the market mentality is negative. The recent restructuring, ethylene just needs to be purchased, the market transaction and investment are limited, businesses are mainly wait-and-see, and refineries are actively shipping. It is expected that the local refining Naphtha market will be dominated in the near future.

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