SunSirs: Low Deadlock in China LLDPE Futures in the First Half of June

Recently, the prices of various products in the plastic industry market have mostly seen low and narrow range consolidation, with three types of plastic futures showing mixed ups and downs. Since the beginning of June until now, the overall profit of the plastic industry has been significant. On the macro level, the increase of the US Debt limit aggravated global inflation, and economic recession fears spread. Affected by this, the international crude oil, which is a plastic remote raw material, has seen a decline and a decrease. At the same time, the load rate of the downstream plastic industry is not ideal, consumption follow-up is lagging, and market momentum is poor. Within half a month, the plastic futures market continued to be in a pattern of off-season consumption and weakened costs, with prices showing a narrow range of consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 14th, the average half month increase in spot prices of various products is from high to low, followed by PP (wire drawing)+0.81%, LLDPE+0.18%, and PVC-0.18%.

Since June, polyethylene spot prices have shown a stabilizing trend. The PE index of the Business Society shows that LLDPE has been operating in a narrow range within half a month, with an average price of 8,028.57 RMB/ton on June 14th, a narrow increase of 0.18% compared to the beginning of the month. Other types of polyethylene products also have varying degrees of rebound. On the cost side, international crude oil rose first and then fell, while polyethylene companies supported fluctuating operations on the cost side, and traders generally followed suit to rescue the market. In terms of demand, the downstream agricultural film direction of PE film materials is still in the traditional off-season of demand, with very limited order volume. The factory load is forced to decrease, and overall consumption is difficult to boost in the short term, which seriously drags the polyethylene spot market. In terms of futures, polyethylene 2307 closed at 7,861 RMB/ton on June 14, with a settlement price of 7,867 RMB/ton. The market trend was weak and did not have a boosting effect on spot prices. The current momentum of the PE market is low, and it is expected that the market may continue to adjust narrowly in the short term.

Recently, the spot prices of plastic futures and three materials have also stabilized at a low level. On the macro level, the external economic environment has performed poorly, and the deepening of global inflation is still exacerbating the decline of crude oil and other bulk commodity raw materials. There is a direct negative impact on plasticizing enterprises, as the long-term low factory prices of products increase business risks, and operators have weak confidence in the future market. At present, the construction of aggregation enterprises is relatively stable, and the supply side is stable. But automobiles, agricultural films, and household appliances have entered the traditional off-season, and PP and PE consumption is sluggish. PVC has also been affected by the contraction of the building materials market and its demand has been downgraded. The overall demand for the three materials tends to follow up and maintain production, with market supply exceeding demand. In summary, the three materials of plastic futures are currently affected by many bearish factors such as weak costs and supply-demand conflicts. However, due to the significant drop in prices in the early stages and the digestion of some short positions, the market entered a narrow consolidation market in the first half of June. It is expected that in the short term, the three materials of plastic futures may continue this weak consolidation pattern.

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