SunSirs: Weak Supply and Demand, China MTBE Market Downturn

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, China domestic MTBE market has declined. From May 29th to June 2nd, the price of MTBE dropped from 7,487 RMB/ton to 7,350 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 1.84% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 1.84%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.98%.

After the price rose to a certain high level in the early stage, downstream resistance led to a gradual slowdown in manufacturers' shipments, with the main focus on profit and volume. At the same time, Shandong Minghao, Dongying Shenchi, and Shandong Chengtai have successively started construction, and the tight spot supply situation is gradually easing. However, the positive demand side has limited boost, coupled with a significant decline in international crude oil, causing the MTBE market to decline in a volatile manner.

Cost and crude oil: the market is worried about whether the US Congress will pass the US debt ceiling agreement, overlapping the internal differences of oil producing countries OEPC+, and the oil market is under pressure. On June 2nd, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil for SunSirs was $72.60 per barrel, while the benchmark price of WTI crude oil was $68.09 per barrel. The cost side is bearish for the domestic oil industry chain, while the MTBE cost side is bearish.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, the increase in summer demand has some support for oil prices, but the weakness of crude oil and the expectation of a new round of retail price limits have suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, making it difficult to close large orders. The demand side of MTBE is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, in terms of enterprises, facilities such as Shenyang Wax Chemical, Qifa Chemical, and Dongming Qianhai are still in parking. Dongying Shenchi and Debao Road were shut down on May 7th, Luoyang Hongli was shut down on May 15th, Shouguang Luqing was shut down on May 18th, Minghao was started on May 26th, Shenchi was started on May 28th, and Chengtai was started on June 1st. Shouguang Luqing is expected to start work in early June. Early maintenance companies are gradually starting construction, and MTBE supply is gradually taking control, with a bearish impact on the supply side.

As of the close on June 1st, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $7.4 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $913.39- $915.39 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $5.75 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $982.49-$982.99 per ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $2.7 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $939.21-$939.5 per ton (264.57-264.67 US cents per gallon).

In the future market forecast, the supply volume will increase and the demand side will perform weakly. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that China domestic MTBE market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

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