SunSirs: The Nickel Price Fluctuated Widely at Low Levels This Week (May 22-26)

Price trend

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, nickel prices fluctuated and rose this week. As of May 26th, the spot nickel quotation was 175,633.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.68% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 16.77%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, nickel prices rose for 6 weeks in the past 12 weeks, and fell for 6 weeks. Recently, nickel prices rebounded slightly.

Analysis review

At the macro level, the US debt ceiling negotiations were fruitless and the economic outlook was worrying. On June 1, the US was forced to default because it would be unable to honor its payment promise, which made the global risk appetite panic. Federal Reserve officials were mixed, holding an "uncertain" attitude towards whether to raise interest rates in June, conveying ambiguous signals. In addition, the resilience of the US economy was still strong, which continued to help the US dollar dominate the "big brother" list, constraining copper prices.

On the supply side: With the expansion and release of new nickel production capacity, the supply of pure nickel continued to increase recently, leading to a market surplus situation. In April, the national refined nickel production totaled 17,600 tons, with a month on month increase of 0.17% and a year-on-year increase of 36.35%.

In terms of demand: The overall demand for pure nickel was stable, with differentiated performance in the terminal field. Stainless steel maintained high production in May, but demand was actually flat. In terms of new energy, nickel sulfate was still being sold at a reduced price. Alloy and electroplating companies maintained an attitude of buying at low prices and not buying at high prices.

Market outlook

In summary, macro weakness inhibited the rebound height of nickel prices, and the expectation of future supply expansion still suppresses nickel prices. The circulation resources of Russian nickel are tight, and the global refined nickel inventory is still at a historical low, and low inventory and destocking support nickel prices. It is expected that nickel will remain low and fluctuate widely.

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