SunSirs--China Commodity Data Group

Member ID: password: Join Now!
Commodity News

SunSirs: Is the Nickel Price at the Inflection Point After the Low Rebound?

March 09 2023 09:36:41     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

According to the nickel price monitoring of SunSirs, as of March 7, the average nickel spot market price was 197,233.33 RMB/ton, up 1.49% from the previous trading day and up 6.6% year-on-year. Since the beginning of the year, the price of nickel has been falling from 23 million RMB/ton to 190 thousand RMB/ton. It has fallen 17.45% in two months, and is now rebounding from the low point. The current price is equivalent to the price in the middle of October 2022. The current nickel price has fallen and rebounded. Has the nickel price reached the inflection point?

Nickel ten-year price curve:

According to the price data of SunSirs, the current nickel price is at a relatively high level in 12 years, which is the same as the price in the middle of October last year.

According to the annual nickel price monitoring data of SunSirs, except for the decline of nickel price in March due to the epidemic in 2020, the nickel price has increased slightly in 2021 and 2022, especially in the case of warehouse squeeze in 2022, which once climbed to more than 300,000 RMB/ton.

Supply is expected to loose

In February, the Philippines shipped 23 ships of nickel ore, about 1.09 million wet tons, about the same year on year; The arrival of nickel ore in China's major ports was about 1.69 million wet tons, down 10% from January. 300000 wet tons (4.5%) of nickel ore were destocked at the port. The newly-built pure nickel production capacity is still to be released, and the domestic smelters are also expected to increase. The supply shortage of pure nickel has been alleviated, and the existing production line of Jinchuan Group has increased by 600 tons/month; There are also enterprises in the market that purchase nickel sulfate to produce electrolytic nickel. The output is about 300 tons/month. Since the beginning of the year, the supply of nickel in the market has been significantly sufficient, and the pure nickel production is expected to be in a climbing state in March. The import side is expected to increase after the news of Russian nickel mixed pricing came out last week.

Demand has warmed up

Although the contradiction of stainless steel supply is difficult to solve for a while, it also forces some enterprises to start the maintenance plan in advance, and last week, the stainless steel was slightly de-stocked, and the demand showed a warming signal; In the new energy vehicle industry, according to the data, the global sales of new energy vehicles in January 2023 was 658000, with a year-on-year increase of 12%, penetration rate of 12.1%, and China's share of 56.9%. At the same time, the policy helped to stimulate demand, and the expectation of the increase in the share of new energy vehicles remained unchanged.

FCA will take regulatory action on LME

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has begun a "mandatory" investigation of the London Metal Exchange (LME), which froze and cancelled billions of dollars worth of nickel trading in response to the historic price surge. The Financial Conduct Authority will monitor LME's efforts to improve its shortcomings in behavior, control and governance, which were exposed when the Exchange suspended the nickel market a year ago. FCA will investigate some behaviors, systems and control measures of LME during the freezing of nickel trading at the beginning of 2022.

LME inventory

As of March 7, LME nickel inventory was 444.18 million tons, down 24.67% from the beginning of the year. The current inventory is at a relatively low level.

Market outlook

To sum up: nickel prices have been falling since the beginning of the year, and spot nickel rebounded slightly on March 7, which seems to have a reversal trend. However, from the perspective of nickel price fundamentals, domestic nickel supply is expected to be loose, and demand has a small recovery. The price comparison data of the past three years shows that except for 2021 and 2022, the nickel price rose slightly at the beginning of March due to the recovery of demand. Now the FCA regulates LME, and it is unlikely that there will be a similar surge in the price of squeeze positions. In general, the supply is loose, and the nickel price does not have the conditions for unilateral rise for the time being. However, supported by the low inventory and the recovery of demand, the price has limited room for further decline. The nickel price is expected to mainly fluctuate at low levels in the short term.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com

Related Information
Energy
Chemical
1,3-butadiene | Acetic acid | Acetic anhydride | Acetone | Acrylic acid | Activated charcoal | Adipic acid | Aluminum fluoride | Ammonium nitrate | Ammonium sulfate | BDO | Benzene | Bisphenol A | Bromine | Butyl acetate | Butyl Acrylate | Calcium carbide | Calcium chloride | Calcium Formate | Caustic soda | Chlorinated Paraffin | Chloroacetic acid | Chloroform | CPL | Cryolite | Cyclohexane | DBP | Dichloromethane | Diethylene glycol | Dimethyl carbonate | DMF | DOP | DOTP | EA | ECH | Epoxy resin | Ethyl Acrylate | Ethylene oxide | Ferrous lithium phosphate | Flake caustic soda | Fluorite | Formaldehyde | Formic acid | Glycerol | Hexafluoropropylene | Hydrochloric acid | Hydrofluoric acid | Hydrogen peroxide | Hydrogenated benzene | IPA | Isobutanol | Isobutyraldehyde | Isooctyl Acrylate | Liquid ammonia | Lithium carbonate | Lithium hydroxide | Maleic anhydride | MEK | Melamine | MIBK | N-butanol | N-butyraldehyde | N-Methylpyrrolidone | N-propanol | Neopentyl glycol | Nitric acid | Orthoboric acid | OX | PA | PAC | PAM | Paraformaldehyde | PCE | PEG | Phenol | Phosphate rock | Polysilicon | Potassium carbonate | Potassium chloride | Potassium nitrate | Potassium sulfate | Propane | Propylene | Propylene Glycol | Propylene oxide | PTFE | R134a | R22 | Resorcinol | Silica | Silicone DMC | Soda ash | Sodium acetate | Sodium Bicarbonate | Sodium metabisulfite | Stearic acid | Sulfur | Sulfuric acid | TDI | Titanium Dioxide | Titanium tetrachloride | Trichloroethylene | Urea | vitamin A | vitamin C | vitamin E |
Rubber & plastics
Textile
Non-ferrous metals
Steel
Building materials
Agricultural & sideline products