SunSirs: Iron Ore Rises First and then Stabilizes, with Narrow Fluctuation

The latest price of iron ore (Australia) (February 15): 891.44 RMB/wet ton

Key points of analysis: as of the afternoon of the 15th, the iron ore price of the trading house had risen slightly, up 2.09%, compared with yesterday. The price of the morning of the 15th continuous iron ore continued to be red and open in the last night's market trend, and then remained green and red throughout the day. As of the end of afternoon trading, Liantie gained 2.18%. Iron ore futures prices rose slightly, and market speculation was stimulated and active. Affected by recent macro factors and domestic resumption of work, iron ore prices have an upward trend. On the supply side, the overseas shipment volume decreased slightly last week, and now it is in the off-season of overseas shipment. The supply situation is turning from loose to tight, and the iron ore supply will be reduced; In terms of demand, since the end of the year, the steel plant has gradually resumed work, and the daily average molten iron output has continued to increase on a month-on-month basis. In addition, the iron ore inventory of the steel plant is low, and the demand for replenishment is also continuing to release after the start of construction. However, the release of the steel terminal demand is slow, so the steel plant's profit level is low, and the purchase is mainly based on replenishment on demand. The supply and demand side of iron ore has turned into a tight balance between supply and demand, which basically forms strong support for the ore price. However, a year ago, the NDRC issued the news of strengthening supervision, which will put some pressure on the upward trend of mineral prices.

Future forecast: It is expected that the short-term ore price will rise first and then stabilize, with narrow volatility, and the risk of short-term volatility needs to be prevented in futures.

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