SunSirs: Nickel Price Rise and Fall Forecast (February 7, 2023)

The latest price (February 6): 217950 RMB/ton of nickel is expected to fluctuate in the future.

Key points of analysis: On February 6, the price fell 4.44% compared with the previous trading day, with a year-on-year increase of 28.36%. The strength of the US dollar led to the fall of metal in the internal market, and the sharp decline of nickel in the next week was 5.13%; Nickel production capacity release market supply is sufficient, nickel inventory has increased slightly, some downstream enterprises have been more active in stocking, procurement has increased, and spot transactions have increased significantly. However, some terminal enterprises have not yet recovered, and it is expected that they will almost return to normal at the weekend. In January 2023, a total of 29 ships were delivered from Philippine nickel mines, totaling about 1.5 million wet tons, a decrease of 21.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. After the rainy season in Surigo, the Philippines, the shipment volume is at the low point of the year, and is expected to recover at the end of the first quarter. At present, there are 6 nickel iron vessels loading/waiting for loading in Indonesia's main ports, which is 33.33% lower than that of the previous period. Downstream, the production of stainless steel and nickel sulfate slightly recovered in February, and there is still a certain demand for alloy electroplating.

Future forecast: In February, the global refined nickel dominant inventory is still at a historical low, and the price rise elasticity is relatively large under the status of low inventory and low warehouse receipt. At present, the nickel futures price is still dominated by the capital game. Before the apparent recovery of the dominant inventory, the nickel price may still maintain a high and wide fluctuation.

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