SunSirs: The Demand Side Is Expected to Improve, and the Price of Raw Silk Continues to Rise in January

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic raw silk price continued to rise in the first half of January, and the price center gradually moved up. As the industry chain entered the Spring Festival holiday, the raw silk price kept stable. As of January 30, the average market price is 437,075 RMB/ton, up 2.44% from the beginning of the month and down 2.08% year on year; The dry cocoon market was operating steadily, and the average market price is 145,000 RMB/ton as of January 30, up 0.69% year on year.

Analysis review

Since the New Year's Day, although the appreciation of the RMB is obvious, and the transaction of raw silk in India and other major markets is not as good as in the early stage, traders have good expectations for the economic recovery after the opening of the epidemic policy. Like other major capital markets and commodity varieties, cocoon silk varieties have come out of a small upward trend. During the Spring Festival, the industrial chain basically entered the holiday state, but there were still a few enterprises in the country that continued to produce during the Spring Festival. For example, in Dehongzhou, Yunnan Province, due to the large number of Burmese workers employed by silk enterprises, it was customary to continue not to take holidays, and then take the Spring Festival holiday at the Dai New Year's Water Splashing Festival. After the Spring Festival, the market is still calm, and the trading has not resumed. There is no market for the time being.

From the perspective of the textile industry, according to the textile index of SunSirs, the textile industry rose slightly in January. As of January 29, the textile index was 956 points, up 13 points from 943 points at the beginning of the month, down 17.30% from the highest point of 1,156 points in the cycle (2018-09-03), and up 40.38% from the lowest point of 681 points on August 13, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

In terms of exports, in December 2022, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to 25.297 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 17.01% and a month-on-month increase of 3.73%. Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarn, fabrics and products) was 11.03 billion US dollars, down 22.91% year-on-year and 2.34% month-on-month; The export value of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was 14.294 billion US dollars, down 11.81% year-on-year and up 8.95% month-on-month.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that it will take time for downstream manufacturers to recover after the holiday, and the industry market is waiting for the return of popularity. At present, the overall demand is weak, the spot transaction is limited, the atmosphere is light, and all parties in the market are watching carefully.

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