SunSirs: Supply Was Tight and BDO Market Continued to Rise

Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic BDO market continued to rise. From January 9 to 13, the average price of BDO of domestic manufacturers increased from 10,370 RMB/ton to 10,930 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 5.40% in the cycle, a year-on-year increase of 15.47%, and a decrease of 61.78%.

Analysis review

In terms of cost, raw calcium carbide: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic calcium carbide price rose slightly. On January 13, SunSirs's benchmark price of calcium carbide was 3,833.33 RMB/ton, up 3.60% from that of January 1 (3,700.00 RMB/ton). In terms of methanol, according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of domestic methanol in the East China port fluctuated at a low level, with 2,646 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and 2,635 RMB/ton at the end of the week (as of 10:00 on January 13), with a price drop of 0.41% during the period. Recently, the carbide market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the methanol market was difficult to have positive factors. The BDO cost support was mixed.

On the supply side, the manufacturers were reluctant to sell the goods in stock; At the same time, the spot auction and competitive purchase of major production enterprises were on the high side, boosting the market focus upward. In terms of devices, except for Dongjing Biological Phase I shutdown and maintenance, other devices operated stably during the week, and the industry burden declined slightly, and the manufacturers continued to deliver contract orders. The BDO supply side was obviously positive.

On the demand side, some midstream and downstream enterprises entered the vacation state in advance, and the overall market volume was limited. The demand of PTMEG industry increased with the increase of restart load of Shanghai BASF plant. The start of the PBT industry dropped to about 50%, and the demand decreased; Most of the PU slurry factories in the polyurethane field were on vacation, and the TPU industry had little change in the start of operation, mainly digesting the inventory. The PBAT industry load was around 15%, and there was no expectation of increasing the load. The demand for BDO had not changed much overall, with a slight positive factor.

Market outlook

The overhaul device is expected to be restarted, and the market supply is increased, but the production enterprises mainly deliver orders, and the intention to sell the goods sparingly to support the market continues. BDO analysts of SunSirs predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly be firm and sorted out.

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