SunSirs: China Domestic Fuel Oil 180CST Continues to Decline Last Week

According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of December 25 was 6,016.00 RMB/ton (tax included), 0.56% lower than the price of 6,050.00 RMB/ton on December 19.

On December 25, the fuel oil commodity index was 121.84, unchanged from yesterday, 11.01% lower than the cycle's highest point of 136.91 (2022-11-17), and 164.41% higher than the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

International crude oil prices rose, supported by the cost of ship fuel market. According to SunSirs, as of December 25, the 180CST self raised low sulfur quotation of fuel oil in the Zhoushan area of CNGC was 6,000 RMB/ton, and the 120CST self raised low sulfur quotation of fuel oil was 6,100 RMB/ton; The price of 180CST self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6,030 RMB/ton, and the price of 120CST self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6,130 RMB/ton.

The international crude oil price rose, and the Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over, and it was not close to the end of monetary tightening. The persistent economic heat in the first half of December triggered the market's concern about the Federal Reserve's transition from "dove" to "eagle", which may disappoint the Federal Reserve's previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the path of monetary tightening, which triggered a general decline in risky assets. In addition, the overall economy was weak. The severe epidemic in Asia continued to drag down demand expectations. The outlook for energy demand was still not optimistic. Economic weakness depressed oil prices, which fell sharply in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, in response to the price ceiling of the Group of Seven oil exports to Russia, Russia said it might cut oil production, tightening expectations to heat up the oil market. The news that the United States planned to store strategic oil reserves also brought good news to the oil market. In the second half of the month, international oil prices recovered their decline.

Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased, providing limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week of December 21, Singapore's middle distillate oil inventory increased by 218,000 barrels, reaching a new three week high of 7.171 million barrels. Singapore's light distillate oil inventory increased by 2.128 million barrels to reach a two month high of 15.819 million barrels. Singapore's fuel inventory increased by 1.314 million barrels to a six week high of 21.403 million barrels.

Future market forecast: The international crude oil price trend rose as a whole last week, and domestic shipping was blocked due to the cold air. At present, domestic logistics has not recovered. The domestic ship fuel market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the terminal replenishment capacity is limited. The purchase is mainly on demand, and the transaction is average. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6,000-6,200 RMB/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6,100-6,250 RMB/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil in the near future will be dominated by the weak.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.