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SunSirs: Demand Continued to Be Weak, and PAM Market Fell Slightly in the First Half of December

December 15 2022 13:22:44     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs (100ppi. com), the PAM commodity index on December 14 was 94.53, unchanged from the previous day, down 15.23% from the highest point of 111.51 points (2021-11-03) in the cycle, and up 14.04% from the lowest point of 82.89 points on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Analysis review

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of SunSirs (100ppi. com), the mainstream market of PAM (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China's domestic market declined slightly in the first half of December, with the mainstream quotation of 15,500 RMB/ton on the first day and 15,471.43 RMB/ton on the 14th, down only 0.18%. After the public event policy was released, the manufacturers returned to work and production one after another. At present, most enterprises have started work normally and have sufficient inventory; On the other hand, after the policy was released, the number of infections increased in a short time, and the production progress was affected to some extent. The market of raw material vinyl cyanide continued to decline, but acrylic acid was stable to be weaken, downstream demand was general, and the market of PAM mainly fluctuated slightly.

Raw material vinyl cyanide: according to the data of SunSirs, the vinyl cyanide market has been weak and downward since December due to the increasing pressure on the supply side and the small drop in the price of raw material propylene market, and the downstream stock was not active. On December 1, the market price of bulk vinyl cyanide was 10,500 RMB/ton, and on December 14, the mainstream market price was 9,860 RMB/ton, down 6.1%. It is expected that the vinyl cyanide market will continue to fall slightly in the later period.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of SunSirs, the acrylic acid market in the first half of December was stable and fell, and the transaction atmosphere in the downstream procurement market was light and stable. On December 1, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 7,366.67 RMB/ton, and on December 14, it was 6,766.67 RMB/ton, down 8.14%. At present, the cost support is weak. The supply side has some support for the acrylic market, but the demand side is cautious. The market transaction is just in demand. It is expected that the acrylic market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

LNG for production. According to the data of SunSirs, the domestic LNG price increased by 65.31% in shock in the first half of December. On December 1, the market price of LNG was about 6,900 RMB/ton, and on December 14, the average market price was 8,100 RMB/ton. In December, domestic LNG prices continued to rise, with a slight correction and a strong upward momentum. The main influencing factors were the soaring price of feed gas, the small amount of feed gas, the shrinking supply of domestic LNG market, and the curtailment and shutdown of some liquid plants. Under the circumstance that the temperature drop stimulated the increase of gas demand and the tightening of supply side, the domestic LNG market was soaring. As LNG has risen for several days, there is limited room for further growth. It is expected that the rise of LNG will weaken in the short term, so it is recommended to operate cautiously.

Market outlook

Recently, the policy on public health events has been liberalized, and factories and downstream areas have resumed production, and the demand is expected to increase. However, so far, the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, the price of raw materials has weakened, the New Year's Day and the New Year holiday next month are approaching, and the number of infected people in the short term has affected, so the subsequent demand is not very optimistic. From the current situation, the future market will remain stable and weak.

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