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SunSirs: Up and Down, the Price of Calcium Carbide Fell by 19.86% in 2022

December 15 2022 11:14:09     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

In 2022, the market of northwest calcium carbide fluctuated and fell. At the beginning of the year, the average factory price of northwest calcium carbide mainstream was 4,616.67 RMB/ton, and at the end of the year, the average mainstream price of calcium carbide was 3,700.00 RMB/ton, a drop of 19.86% in the year. The price of calcium carbide fluctuated around 4,208.00 RMB/ton in the first half of the year and 3800.00 RMB/ton in the second half of the year. The lowest price of the whole year was at the end of August, 3,600.00 RMB/ton, and the highest price of the whole year was at the beginning of January, 4,616.67 RMB/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 22.02% in the year.

From the monthly K column chart of calcium carbide, the market of calcium carbide fell more and rise less in 2022. The highest increase was 9.62% in May and the highest decrease was 12.98% in June. On December 12, the carbide commodity index was 96.94, down 1.75 points from the previous day, down 54.32% from the peak of 212.23 points (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 74.70% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Review of carbide market in 2022

The first quarter:

The calcium carbide market fell first and then rose, showing a "V" shaped trend as a whole. January and February continued the downward trend of December 2021, with insufficient downstream demand, weak trading and investment atmosphere, and reduced carbide exports. The price of calcium carbide dropped from 4,616.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of January to 4,100.00 RMB/ton at the end of February, a total decline of 11.19% in the two months. In March, the export of calcium carbide increased sharply, and at the same time, the upstream and downstream worked together, and the price of calcium carbide increased. The price of calcium carbide rose from 4,100 RMB/ton at the beginning of March to 4,450.00 RMB/ton at the end of March, an increase of 8.54%.Exports: In March, the export of calcium carbide was 14,900 tons, up 380.65% month on month. The market price of upstream Shenmu semi-coke (medium grade) rose sharply. The price rose from 1,500.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of March to 1,750.00 RMB/ton at the end of March, an increase of 16.67%. Downstream PVC export orders increased, futures prices rose, and PVC spot market prices rose slightly, from 8,480.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of March to 9,010.00 RMB/ton at the end of March, up 6.25%.

The second quarter:

The second quarter: the calcium carbide market fell first, then rose and then fell, showing an inverted "N" trend. In April, the export of calcium carbide decreased, the upstream support was insufficient, the downstream demand weakened, and the calcium carbide market fell sharply. The price of calcium carbide dropped from 4,433.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of April to 3,983.33 RMB/ton at the end of April, a decrease of 10.15%. In April, the export of calcium carbide was 4,300 tons, down 71.14% month on month. The price of upstream Shenmu semi-coke (medium grade) fell from 1,800.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of April to 1,750.00 RMB/ton at the end of April, a decrease of 2.78%. Downstream PVC futures rose high and then fell back, while spot demand declined. The PVC market declined from 9,040.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of April to 8,700.00 RMB/ton at the end of April, a decline of 3.76%. In May, the upstream support of calcium carbide was general, and the downstream demand was weakened, but the export increased, and the calcium carbide market rose slightly. The price of calcium carbide rose from 3,983.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of May to 4,366.67 RMB/ton at the end of May, an increase of 9.62%. In May, the export of calcium carbide was 7,500 tons, an increase of 74.41% month on month. Downstream PVC exports weakened, and demand continued to weaken. The PVC market declined from 8,700.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of May to 8,471.25 RMB/ton at the end of May, a decline of 2.63%. In June, the export of calcium carbide increased sharply, and the upstream support increased slightly. However, the downstream demand was seriously insufficient, and the calcium carbide market fell sharply. The price of calcium carbide dropped from 4,366.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of June to 3,800.00 RMB/ton at the end of June, a decrease of 12.98%. In June, the export of calcium carbide was 19400 tons, an increase of 158.67% month on month. The turnover of PVC in the downstream was not good. Affected by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the atmosphere of waiting and watching in the downstream was strong. The PVC market price fell from 8,471.25 RMB/ton at the beginning of June to 7,348.75 RMB/ton at the end of June, a decline of 13.25%.

The third quarter:

The calcium carbide market rose first and then fell.

The first stage: early July to mid August. The calcium carbide manufacturer had a lot of furnace shutdowns for maintenance, and the supply was tight. The price of calcium carbide rose from 3,800 RMB/ton in early July to 4,050 RMB/ton in mid August, up 6.58%.

The second stage: the middle of August to the end of September. The export of calcium carbide weakened, downstream demand declined, and the market of calcium carbide fell sharply. The price of calcium carbide dropped from 4,050 RMB/ton in the middle of August to 3,700 RMB/ton at the end of September, a decline of 8.64%.

In August, the export of calcium carbide was 7,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 39.84%. The trading atmosphere in the downstream PVC market was light, and traders were not active in taking goods. The PVC market declined from 4,050 RMB/ton in the middle of August to 3,700 RMB/ton at the end of September, a decline of 8.64%.

The fourth quarter:

The calcium carbide market rose first, then fell, then rose and then fell, showing an inverted "M" trend. In October, the downstream demand of calcium carbide was general, but the upstream semi-coke support was good, and the calcium carbide market rose slightly. The shortage of coal superimposed on the winter storage was ahead of schedule, the price of lump coal continued to rise, and the cost of semi-coke enterprises was under pressure. The price of Shenmu semi-coke (medium grade) rose from 1,750.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of October to 1,850.00 RMB/ton at the end of October, up 5.71%. Downstream PVC futures and spot prices fell, and the trading atmosphere became more light. The PVC market declined from 6,265.710 RMB/ton at the beginning of October to 6,021.43 RMB/ton at the end of October, a decrease of 3.90%. In November, the upstream support of calcium carbide was insufficient, and the downstream demand was general. Calcium carbide market fell slightly. The price of calcium carbide dropped from 3,883.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of November to 3,750 RMB/ton at the end of November, a decrease of 3.43%. The price of upstream Shenmu semi-coke (medium grade) fell from 1,850.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of November to 1,560.00 RMB/ton at the end of November, a decline of 15.68%. Downstream PVC transactions were more cautious, mainly purchased by rigid demand. The PVC market declined from 6,021.43 RMB/ton at the beginning of November to 6,002.86 RMB/ton at the end of November, a decrease of 0.31%. In December, the upstream support of calcium carbide increased, while the downstream demand was average. The price of calcium carbide rose first and then fell, with a narrow range of shocks. The price of upstream Shenmu semi-coke (medium grade) rose from 1,560.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of December to 1,800.00 RMB/ton on December 13, an increase of 15.38%. PVC market fluctuated in a narrow range, and downstream demand was general.

Market outlook

In the middle and early of January, the market of calcium carbide will fluctuate and fall slightly mainly. The market price of raw material semi-coke was consolidated at a high level, and the cost support of calcium carbide was well. However, the downstream PVC market performance was average, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high. The actual transaction was more cautious, mainly by rigid demand. In the future, it is predicted that the carbide price in the northwest region will fall slightly with shocks in the early and middle of January.

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