According to Sina Finance, the latest customs data shows that China imported 8,700 metric tons of refined zinc in December 2025, marking a month-on-month decrease of 9,500 metric tons (51.9%) and a year-on-year decline of 73.4%. Refined zinc exports in December reached 27,200 metric tons, down 15,500 metric tons or 36.3% month-on-month, but up 524.2% year-on-year. This resulted in a net export of 18,500 metric tons for December.

Key Data Points:

In late October 2025, the domestic refined zinc export window opened, driving a significant increase in export volumes. By early December, the export window closed again, resulting in a notable month-on-month decline in December's refined zinc exports. With exports currently operating at a loss, January exports are expected to continue falling. However, since June 2025, the domestic refined zinc import window has remained closed. December imports fell below 10,000 metric tons and are projected to decline further to under 5,000 metric tons, alleviating some pressure from export contraction.

As of January 21, 2026, processing fees for domestic and imported zinc concentrates have fallen from last year's highs to approximately 1,600 RMB/metal ton and 40 USD/dry ton, respectively. This decline stems primarily from winter production cuts at domestic mines, slow growth in imported ore supply, and competitive procurement by smelters for winter stockpiling. The decline in processing fees has pressured smelting profits, with some enterprises facing cash flow deficits, leading to production cuts or planned maintenance. According to SMM data, zinc ingot output in December 2025 reached 552,100 tons, down 7.2% month-on-month. January 2026 output is projected at 569,400 tons, representing a 3.1% month-on-month increase.

In December 2025, the average capacity utilization rate for galvanized coil production across sampled steel mills nationwide reached 66.6%, up 2.89 percentage points from November and marking the highest level of the year, also exceeding the same period last year by 7.13 percentage points. Despite the traditional fourth-quarter demand slowdown, steel mills demonstrated strong production momentum. This was driven by two factors: many manufacturers pursued year-end production targets, and robust galvanized sheet exports—December 2025 exports reached 1.389 million tons, up 16.9% month-on-month and 34.8% year-on-year. Consequently, amid constrained supply and resilient demand, domestic zinc ingot inventories have not faced significant accumulation pressure, with social inventories recently recording a slight decline.

Refined zinc exports are currently trending downward due to fluctuations in export windows, while imports remain unprofitable and are expected to continue decreasing. Fundamentally, on the supply side, declining zinc ore processing fees have sharply reduced smelting profits, forcing some enterprises to cut production. On the demand side, the traditional off-season has shown unexpected resilience, particularly with active production and robust exports in the galvanized sector. Therefore, supported by costs and tightening supply-demand dynamics, domestic zinc ingot inventories have not accumulated significantly recently. This is expected to underpin zinc prices, maintaining an upward bias.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 23rd, the benchmark price of zinc according to SunSirs was 24296.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.27% compared to the beginning of the month (23302.00 RMB/ton).

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