Price trend

Last week, the silicomanganese market continued to trade within a narrow range, with a cautious market sentiment and generally moderate trading activity. In southern China, silicomanganese prices fluctuated upwards as steel mills began their winter stockpiling in January. Major steel mills initiated bidding processes and were actively purchasing, while spot prices followed futures prices higher, resulting in more active trading. Northern factories temporarily had fewer spot offers, with some maintaining firm prices. According to data from SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the market price for silicomanganese (FeMN68Si18) in Ningxia last weekend was around 5,500-5,600 RMB/ton, with an average market price of 5,572.00 RMB/ton, a 0.14% increase compared to the previous week.

Influencing factors

Supply side: During the week, some new production capacity in Inner Mongolia gradually came online, and production was gradually returning to normal. Some factories still had expectations of starting production before the Lunar New Year; manufacturers in Ningxia maintained stable production without significant fluctuations, but the shipping speed was slow and the shipment volume was small. As of January 16, the inventory remained high.

Overall operating rates in southern China remained low, with a limited number of furnaces tempoarily in operation. Given that electricity prices have not decreased in 2026, there was no significant room for an increase in production. A large factory in Xingyi had plans to switch to ferrochrome production and was temprarily preparing for this transition. Other factories were also considering switching to silicomanganese and ferrochrome production, leading to a continued decrease in the number of silicomanganese manufacturers.

According to statistics, the operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises nationwide last week was 36.06%, a decrease of 0.75% compared to the week before last; the average daily output was 27,225 tons, a decrease of 65 tons.

According to incomplete statistics, as of January 16th, the total inventory of silicomanganese alloy enterprises nationwide was 372,800 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons compared to the previous period. This includes: Inner Mongolia (62,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons); Ningxia (293,000 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons); Guangxi (4,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons); Guizhou (3,000 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons); Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi (8,300 tons, a decrease of 700 tons); and Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing (2,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons).

Upstream cost side: Last week, the northern manganese ore market remained stable, with semi-carbonate prices showing slight strength, rising by approximately 0.2-0.3 RMB/ton last week. Oxide ore performed generally, with factories offering lower inquiry prices and varying transaction prices. Manganese ore quotations at Qinzhou Port followed the upward trend of the international market, but due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels, market participants became more cautious and adopted a wait-and-see attitude. South African high-grade and medium-grade manganese ore inventories were low, keeping prices at high levels.

Data showed that as of January 16, at Tianjin Port, Australian manganese ore lumps were quoted at 42-44.5 RMB/MTU, semi-carbonate ore at 36.5-37 RMB/MTU, and Gabonese lumps at 43.5-44 RMB/MTU; at Qinzhou Port, Australian manganese ore lumps were quoted at 41.5-42 RMB/MTU, semi-carbonate ore at 36 RMB/ton, and Gabonese lumps at 41.5-42.5 RMB/MTU.

In the international market, NMT released its February 2026 manganese ore price quote for China, with South African semi-carbonate manganese ore priced at US$4.32/MTU, an increase of US$0.17/MTU compared to the previous month. UMK also announced its February 2026 manganese ore price quote for China, with Mn36% South African semi-carbonate manganese ore priced at US$4.32 /MTU, an increase of US$0.17/MTU compared to the previous round of pricing.

Regarding demand: The steel procurement situation was gradually becoming clearer. It is reported that a large steel plant in North China has set its January silicon-manganese bidding price at 5,920 RMB/ton, with the initial inquiry price at 5,850 RMB/ton, an increase of 150 RMB/ton compared to the December price. The quantity purchased this time was 17,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons compared to the previous month. The steel procurement situation was gradually becoming clearer.  It is reported that a large steel plant in North China had set its January silicon-manganese bidding price at 5,920 RMB/ton, with the initial inquiry price at 5,850 RMB/ton, an increase of 150 RMB/ton compared to the December price. The quantity purchased this time was 17,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons compared to the previous month.

A steel plant in East China had finalized its latest tender price for silicomanganese alloy at 5,930 RMB/ton (acceptance payment), with a procurement quantity of 4,000 tons. Another group in East China has finalized its latest tender price for silicomanganese alloy at a range of 5,880-6,030 RMB/ton (acceptance payment), with a total procurement quantity of 3,500 tons.

According to reports, a certain group has announced the results of its latest Silicomanganese tender. The procurement prices were as follows: 5,810 RMB/ton for delivery to Hubei (4,000 tons); 5,840 RMB/ton for delivery to Jiangsu (2,000 tons); 6,000 RMB/ton for delivery to Yunfu (6,600 tons); and 6,030 RMB/ton for delivery to Heyuan (3,000 tons). All prices were cash payments including taxes.

Market Outlook

Overall, the silicomanganese spot market was operating within a narrow range, with rising costs and increased demand. However, supply remained high, and there was insufficient momentum for a sustained upward breakthrough in the actual silicomanganese price. SunSirs expects that, supported by costs, the downside potential for the silicomanganese market is limited in the short term. Further attention should be paid to steel procurement and transaction performance, as well as fluctuations in futures prices.

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