I. Core Data and Historical Review

Key Global Cement Indicators in 2025

Global cement demand stabilized, with production maintaining at 3.865 billion tons; prior to this, demand had declined for three consecutive years, dropping by 3.2% year-on-year in 2024.

Global cement production in 2025 decreased by over 420 million tons compared to the 2021 peak, a decline of 10%.

Regional performance: Markets such as North Asia, North America, and Western Europe remained weak; major markets (Mexico, Russia, Iran, Indonesia) and some smaller but regionally important markets (Australia, South Africa) underperformed expectations.

Global Cement Export Pattern in 2025

II. Outlook for Global Cement Demand in 2026

Macroeconomic Background

IMF forecast: Global GDP is expected to grow by 3.1% year-on-year in 2026 (lower than 3.2% in 2025); advanced economies are projected to grow by approximately 1.5%, while emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by slightly over 4%.

Core Forecast for Global Demand in 2026

Overall demand: Expected to decline by 0.2% year-on-year (including China); excluding China, driven by the expansion of emerging economies, year-on-year growth is expected to reach approximately 5% (1.5% growth in mature markets, 0.3% decline in emerging markets).

Regional Demand Growth Forecast (2026)

Analysis of Key Regional Demand

Asia-Pacific: The world's largest cement consumption market; China's declining demand drags down regional growth, with India and Southeast Asia as key growth contributors.

Middle East and Africa: One of the fastest-growing regions, with overall demand increasing by 7-8%; MENA supports prices, while Sub-Saharan Africa faces intensified competition (new capacity + increasing new entrants).

Latin America: Steady recovery with 6-7% demand growth; recovering public investment drives construction activities.

Mature Markets: Low-speed growth in Europe (+1-2%), North America (+1-2%), and Australia (moderate growth), supported by structural factors; Russia remains sluggish.

III. Judgment on Global Cement Price Trends in 2026

Overall Price Forecast

In local currency terms: The average price is expected to rise by 3-4%; mature markets by approximately 3%, and emerging markets by approximately 4%.

Core drivers of price increases: Cost pass-through, trade protection policies, and carbon emission constraints, rather than a comprehensive strong rebound in demand.

Review of Global Prices in 2025 (Year-on-Year Growth Rate)

Regional Price Forecast for 2026 (Year-on-Year Growth Rate)

Price Drivers

Energy costs: A key cost variable; volatility has eased but remains at a long-term high, continuously driving price increases.

Decarbonization and environmental policies: The gradual implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the continuous reduction of free allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) have improved the pricing environment in Western Europe and enhanced the bargaining power of local producers.

Trade protection measures: Tariffs, anti-dumping duties, and carbon-related barriers increase import costs, supporting price recovery in mature markets.

IV. Key Influencing Variables for the Industry in 2026

Government infrastructure investment: Remains the core driver of global cement demand.

Urbanization: Population concentration in cities in emerging economies continues to drive long-term demand.

Energy and decarbonization pressures: Profoundly reshape cost structures and industry competition patterns.

Capacity and competition landscape: Oversupply in some regions restricts price recovery potential.

V. Conclusions and Outlook

Overall Industry Pattern: The global cement industry will exhibit a trend of "stable but differentiated demand and moderate price recovery" in 2026; emerging markets are the main support for global demand growth, while price improvements in mature markets rely more on policy and cost pass-through mechanisms.

China Market Positioning: Still in an adjustment cycle, with supply-side changes helping stabilize prices.

Industry Transformation Direction: Price trends are shifting from "demand-driven" to a new phase of "policy, cost, and structure-driven"; the divergence in corporate profitability is expected to widen further. Producers with advantages in cost control, regional layout, and low-carbon transformation are poised to gain a more favorable position in 2026.

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