Macroeconomics

1. [Fiscal Policy] A comprehensive package of fiscal and financial policies to stimulate domestic demand has been released. This includes the first-ever establishment of a 500 billion RMB special guarantee plan for private investment, guiding banks to provide an additional 500 billion RMB in loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for private investment. For the first time, interest subsidies for SME loans will be implemented, covering 14 "key industrial chains and upstream and downstream industries," productive service industries, and related agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors. Policies such as interest subsidies for service industry businesses, personal consumption loans, and equipment upgrade loans will be optimized, and personal credit card installment payments will be included in the subsidy scope.

2. [US-EU Agreement on Hold] The European Parliament announced the freezing of the approval process for the trade agreement reached with the United States last July. This is seen as the EU's first response to Trump's latest pressure tactics. Trump had previously threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries until an agreement was reached on the US "purchase of Greenland."

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On January 20, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price for the March contract of US WTI crude oil futures was $60.36 per barrel, an increase of $1.02 or 1.7%. The settlement price for the March contract of Brent crude oil futures was $64.92 per barrel, an increase of $0.79 or 1.2%.

2. [Crude Oil] On January 20, a preliminary survey showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories were expected to increase last week, while distillate fuel inventories were likely to decline. The average estimate of four analysts surveyed was that US crude oil inventories increased by approximately 1.8 million tons in the week ending January 16.  Distillate fuel inventories, including diesel and heating oil, were estimated to decrease by approximately 200,000 barrels last week, while gasoline inventories were estimated to increase by approximately 2.5 million barrels.

3. [Crude Oil] On January 20, Pakistan's state-owned Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDCL) announced an oil and gas discovery at its Baragzai X-01 exploration well in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which will help boost domestic supply and enhance Pakistan's energy security. Tests showed that the well has a crude oil production of 3,100 barrels per day and a natural gas production of 8.15 million standard cubic feet per day.

4. [Crude Oil] On January 20th, shipping data showed that Iraq will export a total of 223,000 barrels per day of crude oil in February, a 21% increase from the previous month. January exports were scheduled at 184,000 barrels per day. Of the February shipments, eight cargoes will be exported from the Ceyhan terminal in Turkey, and three cargoes will be delivered to the Turkish refinery Tupras via the Kirikkale pipeline. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which had been shut down for two and a half years, resumed operations at the end of September, with the first exports beginning in October last year.

5. [LPG] On January 20th, the price of civil liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at Qingdao Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. increased by 50 RMB/ton to 4,450 RMB/ton. The plant is operating normally, with a daily output of approximately 1,000 tons and controllable inventory.

6. [Coking Coal] On January 20th, the mainstream coking coal blending price in the Changzhi market increased by 30 RMB/ton. Lean coking coal A10.5, S0.4, G30 is priced at 1,150 RMB/ton; lean-poor coking coal A10.5, S0.4, G15 is priced at 1,070 RMB/ton.  All prices are ex-factory cash prices including tax, effective from 16:00 on the 20th.

7. [Petroleum Coke] On January 20th, the price of petroleum coke at Guangrao Zhenghe Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 2,700 RMB/ton, a decrease of 30 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. Sulfur content is around 1.2-1.4%, with an 800,000 tons/year delayed coking unit and a daily petroleum coke output of 350 tons.

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