Price trend
After the Spring Festival, the domestic PTA spot market showed a slight increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of February 10th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 5,118 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.31% compared to February 5th.
Analysis review
On the cost side, the 4 million ton PX plant in East China has slightly reduced its load, while a 400,000 ton PX plant in South Korea has been shut down, enhancing expectations of a tightening PX supply and demand pattern. There will be seasonal maintenance of PX in Asian facilities in the second quarter, and due to a shortage of raw materials, PX supply may be further compressed in the near future, which may continue to rise and support PTA costs upward.
From the perspective of its own supply, the 1.25 million ton PTA plant of INEOS was overhauled on January 13th and restarted around February 8th. As of February 10th, the industry's operating rate was around 83%. PTA social inventory was relatively high, and the PTA market continued to accumulate inventory in February. Supply and demand may slightly improve in March.
Part of the downstream polyester plants has been restarted as planned, and the demand side was gradually recovering, which increased the demand for PTA. However, manufacturers were cautious after the holiday, and coupled with the fact that many migrant workers have not returned to work, the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slowly increased to over 24%.
Market outlook
SunSirs’ analysts believe that short-term cost support is still present, and the terminal market is still in the recovery stage. Polyester load is expected to continue to increase, and there is a strong expectation of supply and demand improvement. It is expected that the PTA market will continue to rise in the short term.
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