The 2025/26 forecast for China's cotton production is largely consistent with data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. This month's data has been slightly adjusted based on the National Bureau of Statistics' announcement. Specifically, the cotton planted area is adjusted to 2,979 thousand hectares, a 5.0% increase compared to the previous year; the yield per hectare is adjusted to 2,229 kilograms, a 2.6% increase compared to the previous year; and the total production is adjusted to 6.64 million tons, a 7.7% increase compared to the previous year. Import and consumption forecasts remain unchanged from last month, while ending stocks are adjusted down to 8.29 million tons.
China's total cotton production for the 2025/26 season has been revised upwards to 6.64 million tons, a 7.7% increase year-on-year. This is primarily due to a 5.0% increase in planted area and a 2.6% improvement in yield per unit area, significantly strengthening the supply side. Import and consumption forecasts remain unchanged, while ending stocks have been revised down to 8.29 million tons. This indicates that although demand is stable, it cannot fully absorb the increased supply, leading to a higher risk of overall market oversupply and downward pressure on spot prices.
Based on cotton futures data, such as the closing price of the main contract 2605 at 14,625 RMB/ton and the settlement price at 14,565 RMB/ton, a decrease of 170 RMB/ton on the day, and a decrease of 31,033 lots in open interest, the market has already reflected the expectation of increased supply. Future production growth may further pressure futures prices, leading to continued price weakness and a significant bearish impact.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 14th, the benchmark price of raw cotton according to SunSirs was 15,773.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.44% compared to the beginning of the month (15,549.17 RMB/ton).
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