According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the average price of rapeseed oil in the spot market was 13,450 RMB/ ton on October 25, and 13,404 RMB/ ton on October 1, up 0.34% and 8.71% year on year.
After the National Day holiday, the spot price of rapeseed oil rose, boosted by the rise of the external market during the holiday. On October 13, Zheng rapeseed oil futures rose 1.4%. USDA lowered its estimate of American soybean production, which was good for the increase of spot price of rapeseed oil. In 2021/2022, the output of Canadian rapeseed producing areas, the main country of production, was significantly reduced due to drought, resulting in tight global rapeseed supply and limited rapeseed oil output, supporting domestic rapeseed prices. The global rapeseed supply will increase significantly in 2022/2023. It is estimated that a large number of rapeseed will arrive in Hong Kong in the middle and late November, so that the shortage of domestic rapeseed oil supply can be eased. The domestic epidemic situation is repeated, the demand for oil is limited, and the rising space of rapeseed oil is limited. The spot price of rapeseed oil is high, and the market turnover is limited. Near the end of the month, the rapeseed oil market declined at a high level.
According to customs statistics, China's rapeseed imports in September were 62,956.27 tons, up 0.6% month on month and down 72.5% year on year. From January to August 2022, the domestic rapeseed import volume was 736,000 tons, a 49% decrease compared with that from January to August 2021. From January to August 2022, the domestic rapeseed oil import volume was 615,000 tons, a 62% decrease compared with that from January to August 2021. Rapeseed imports and rapeseed oil imports declined significantly.
According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average market price of soybean oil in Shandong was 10,750 RMB/ ton on October 25, and 10,190 RMB/ ton on October 1, up 5.50%. On October 25, the average price of palm oil in the domestic market was 8,530 RMB/ ton, and on October 1, the average price of palm oil in the domestic market was 7,526 RMB/ ton, up 13.34%. Brown oil and soybean oil rose one after another in October, and brown oil rose the most, which was good for the spot market of rapeseed oil.
In terms of domestic rapeseed, with the gradual decrease in the supply of old rapeseed market, the market supply is insufficient, and the quotation rises slightly. In the old season, Canada's rapeseed production was reduced and the rapeseed oil yield was low. In the first three quarters, the number of domestic imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil was low, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was at a low level in recent years. Before the launch of rapeseed in 2023, the domestic rapeseed supply was tight, and SunSirs rapeseed analysts predict that the rapeseed in China would maintain a strong trend.
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