According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from December 12th to 19th, MTBE prices fell from 4,967 RMB/ton to 4,967 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.70% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 0.10%, and a year-on-year drop of 10.85%. The international crude oil trend is not good, and manufacturers have slightly lowered prices to promote shipments. The high cost of raw materials provides support, and manufacturers have a willingness to raise prices. The extent of price reduction is limited. Part of the previously suspended equipment has resumed work, and some manufacturers have also stopped work. As a result, the overall resource supply has slightly decreased, and the decrease in supply is playing a game with weak demand. The MTBE market is mainly characterized by weak fluctuations.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: the international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are the increasing market concerns about long-term oversupply, coupled with positive signals released by the Russia Ukraine peace talks, putting pressure on oil prices. As of December 18th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the February contract was $59.82 per barrel.

In terms of demand and downstream gasoline, there is room for international oil prices to rise. However, the expected retail price limit for refined oil products has been lowered in this round, and the sluggish situation in the refined oil market is difficult to change. Both buyers and sellers are operating rationally, and the market's wait-and-see atmosphere still exists. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.

Supply side: Dechen Energy and Hebei Xinxinyuan plants have started construction, while Shandong Chengtai and Yuhuang Shengrong plants have stopped production, resulting in a decrease in overall plant operating rates. The supply of MTBE is affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on December 18th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $4.39/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $611.43-613.43/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $13.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $685.49-685.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $2.48/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $602.36-602.71/ton (170.08-170.18 cents/gallon).

In the future, it is predicted that raw material prices will operate at a high level, and manufacturers will incur losses, indicating a strong willingness to raise prices. Some large manufacturers have provided some bottom support to the market by delivering early exports. But gasoline demand is weak, and the supply and demand sides are still in a game. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly consolidating weakly.

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