According to Securities Market Weekly, the lithium industry is poised for a cyclical turnaround in 2025. Carbonate lithium prices have been steadily recovering since July, accumulating over 30% gains within this period and successfully breaking out of a three-year downtrend. The core logic lies in the dual-engine growth driven by surging energy storage demand complementing battery applications, coupled with slowing supply growth due to reduced capital expenditures by lithium mining companies. This accelerates the industry's move toward a tight supply-demand balance, with a critical inflection point expected in 2026-2027 and sustained upward pressure on lithium prices.

The demand side exhibits a dual-engine pattern of “stable growth in battery applications and explosive growth in energy storage.” The power battery sector benefits from synchronized growth in both domestic and international markets. Domestic “trade-in” policies have provided significant stimulus, with cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles reaching 13.015 million and 12.943 million units respectively from January to October 2025, both surging over 32% year-on-year. In October, new energy vehicles captured over half of the market share for the first time, reaching 51.6%. Commercial vehicles delivered standout performance, with new energy heavy-duty trucks selling 136,900 units during the same period—a staggering 192% year-on-year surge. Their market penetration rose from 14% in 2024 to 29%, projected to exceed 60% by 2030, corresponding to a lithium battery demand potential of 672GWh. Overseas markets are recovering in tandem. New energy vehicle sales in Europe's nine major markets grew 30.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters. The UK, France, and Italy have reinstated electric vehicle subsidies, while automakers like Volkswagen have introduced price discounts. Mass production of new-generation models starting in Q4 will further unleash demand.

The energy storage market has emerged as a new growth driver for lithium demand, experiencing rapid expansion fueled by both policy and market forces. By the end of September 2025, China's new energy storage installed capacity exceeded 100 GW, accounting for over 40% of the global total—a more than 30-fold increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Energy storage battery shipments reached 430 GWh in the first three quarters, exceeding 130% of the full-year 2024 total, with power storage and residential storage accounting for over 90% of the market. Policy support continues to intensify. The Action Plan for Scaling Up New Energy Storage (2025–2027) sets an installed capacity target of 180 GW by 2027, driving approximately 250 billion RMB in direct investment. Bidding data indicates that energy storage EPC projects secured 80GWh of capacity in the first half of 2025, with 51.3GWh connected to the grid from January to August. Annual bidding volume is projected to exceed 200GWh, with installed capacity reaching 149GWh. In 2026, installed capacity is expected to increase to 203GWh, representing a 36.24% year-on-year growth. Overseas markets also show robust growth. The U.S. rush to install, coupled with surging demand in emerging European and African markets, is driving global energy storage battery demand. This is projected to reach 550GWh in 2025 (a 70% year-on-year increase) and rise to 770GWh in 2026. Combined with photovoltaic (PV) system integration needs, cumulative demand for PV-integrated energy storage is expected to hit 1,500GWh by 2030. Overall, global dynamic storage demand is projected to exceed 1,950 GWh in 2025 (a 42% year-on-year increase) and grow to 2,482 GWh in 2026 (a 26% year-on-year increase).

The contraction in supply is becoming increasingly evident, driving the tight supply-demand balance. After three years of price declines, capital expenditures by lithium resource companies worldwide have continued to shrink, with a sharp reduction in new capacity projects. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, a slowdown in supply growth from 2026 to 2028 is inevitable. Under a neutral forecast, supply growth rates for 2025-2027 are projected at 22%, 22%, and 15% respectively, with 2027 likely marking a cyclical inflection point in supply-demand dynamics. This certain slowdown in supply growth contrasts sharply with robust demand expansion, further bolstering lithium price increases.

Market data confirms the industry's recovery momentum. On October 30, 2025, lithium carbonate futures prices surpassed 80,000 RMB per ton, with the main futures contract reaching RMB97,006 per ton by early December. Institutional forecasts project that global energy storage shipments will grow by over 40% year-on-year in 2026, with electric vehicle sales reaching 24.85 million units (a 17% year-on-year increase). The average price of lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize at RMB 80,000 per ton. For the industry, the ongoing improvement in supply-demand fundamentals will drive a revaluation of lithium companies with low costs and high-quality mining assets. A new industry boom cycle is approaching, with key focus areas including the timing of the supply-demand inflection point and the pace of overseas capacity expansion.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 3, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate (battery grade) on SunSirs was 94,366.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.18% compared with the beginning of the month (93,266.67 RMB/ton).

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