According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from November 17th to 21st, MTBE prices fell from 4,950 RMB/ton to 4,935 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.30% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 1.49%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.41%. In the early stage, there was a slight decline in prices, and manufacturers offered discounts to promote shipments. As prices gradually bottomed out, it attracted buying enthusiasm and the trading atmosphere improved. Subsequently, the manufacturer took advantage of the situation to push up the quotation, but due to the fluctuation of the international crude oil market, the market mentality became cautious, limiting the upward space of the MTBE market. The weak downward trend was mainly observed in the later part of the week.

In terms of cost and crude oil: the main positive factors for the rise of international oil prices are: the market is still worried about the sanctions imposed by the United States on some oil producing countries, the end of the suspension of the United States government has boosted market confidence, and at the same time, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still not substantially eased, leading to potential supply risks. As of November 20th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the February contract was $62.80 per barrel.

On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, international crude oil is fluctuating, and the refined oil market is weakly declining. Refinery oil prices are appropriately adjusted to stimulate downstream buying at low prices. Intermediate traders remain cautious in ordering, and downstream users purchase according to their needs. Market transactions are mainly small orders. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.

Supply side: After the shutdown of the Bengu new material plant, the output was affected, and the operating rate of the plant decreased slightly. The supply of MTBE is affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on November 20th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $13.35/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $642.27-644.27/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $19.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $804.49-804.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $39.77/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $831.71-832.07/ton (234.84-234.94 cents/gallon).

In the future, it is predicted that raw material prices may consolidate at a high level, and the driving force for cost support still exists. Some large manufacturers still focus on delivering for export, with limited external output, which provides some bottom support for the market. The MTBE analyst from SunSirs believes that there is a possibility of a rebound in the domestic MTBE market.

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