According to China Energy Network, the ongoing “coal-to-gas” policy is profoundly reshaping the development logic of the glass industry with its deep industrial penetration. As an energy-intensive sector, glass production has long relied on coal as its core fuel. This transition centered on clean energy substitution is not only driving structural changes on the supply side but also propelling the industry's evolution from mere “fuel replacement” toward “ecological restructuring” and “value upgrading.” Against the backdrop of real estate sector adjustments and the dual carbon goals, this transformation serves as both a breakthrough to resolve long-standing industry issues and a new path toward high-quality development for the glass industry.

The “coal-to-gas” initiative is a rare factor driving supply reduction in the glass market, potentially improving marginal conditions. On the other hand, it may elevate average production costs, thereby providing some support for prices.

The advancement of “coal-to-gas” in China's glass industry is fundamentally the inevitable outcome of policy direction and market forces working in tandem. By upgrading fuel structures to reduce pollutant emissions at the source, it has become a core driver for the industry's green and low-carbon transformation.

The underlying logic of coal-to-gas conversion fundamentally addresses overcapacity in the glass sector. Against the backdrop of limited short-term demand growth, energy upgrades force the exit of outdated capacity and optimize production structures—a key pathway to breaking the glass industry's vicious cycle of competition.

As natural gas prices rise during the heating season, small glass enterprises previously using natural gas face increased cost pressures and show strong willingness to connect to centralized coal-to-gas systems, forming the “proactive conversion” group. Some enterprises, constrained by site topography, cannot access centralized gas networks and face “forced shutdowns.” Meanwhile, most coal-fired production lines with remaining profit margins choose to wait and see.

Data indicates that among current float glass production lines, coal-based gas-fired lines achieve weekly profits of 51.26 RMB/ton, petroleum coke-fired lines yield 32.52 RMB/ton, while natural gas-fired lines have sustained losses for nearly a year and a half, with weekly profits plunging to -187.70 RMB/ton. This trend is exacerbated by sharply declining raw material costs for soda ash and coal, further dampening conversion incentives for some enterprises.

Nationally, natural gas accounts for over 50% of glass production capacity, while petroleum coke and coal each represent approximately 15%. This fuel disparity directly impacts product quality: glass produced using natural gas commands higher spot prices than petroleum coke or coal-fired alternatives due to its superior quality and higher production costs.

As local “coal-to-gas” and “petroleum coke-to-gas” policies are progressively implemented, the unit energy consumption of domestic glass production lines will continue to decline. The industry's competitive logic will shift from “price competition” to “quality competition,” with enterprises placing greater emphasis on the R&D and promotion of high-value-added products. This is expected to drive structural improvements in the industry's profitability.

Current uncertainties in the glass market's supply side center on two key issues: “delayed conversion progress” and “fluctuating corporate willingness to convert production.”

The core reason for the lack of significant capacity reduction in the glass industry this year is the substantial decline in raw material costs, which has prevented further widening of losses for some production lines. Low-cost lines still maintain profit margins, making the cost pressure of conversion the key constraint on enterprises' willingness to switch production in a weak cycle.

The “coal-to-gas” transition is reshaping the competitive landscape of the glass industry. Small and medium-sized capacities are accelerating their exit, while leading enterprises leverage their capital and technological advantages to expand, driving continuous increases in industry concentration.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 21, the benchmark price of glass on SunSirs was 13.58 RMB/square meter, a decrease of 1.95% compared with the beginning of the month (13.85 RMB/square meter).

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