According to China Energy Network, PVC futures prices have hit a decade-low since 2025, driven by factors including increased supply, reduced demand, and weakness in the real estate sector.

On the supply side, 2025 remains a peak year for PVC capacity additions, with new capacity reaching 2.2 million tons. New projects from Xinpu Chemical, Wanhua Fujian, Tianjin Bohua, and Gansu Yaowang are steadily coming online, pushing total capacity to an estimated 29.93 million tons by year-end—a 7.35% year-on-year increase.

Regarding inventories, as of November 14, domestic PVC social inventory samples stood at 1.0282 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month decrease of 1.27% but a significant year-on-year increase of 23.75%, indicating sustained pressure from elevated stock levels. Warehouse inventories in East China and South China remain at historically high levels for this time of year, with slow destocking progress. High inventory is the core factor suppressing PVC prices. Affected by weak terminal demand, domestic PVC social inventories have continued to climb since July. Even during the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October,” effective destocking failed to materialize, driving futures prices to accelerate downward.

Regarding demand, “weak domestic, strong overseas” is the most prominent feature of the current PVC demand side. Eighty percent of PVC downstream demand is tied to real estate and infrastructure. Recent years have seen a sluggish real estate market, with declines in investment and new construction starts. Low operating rates in consumption sectors like pipes and profiles, coupled with a lack of positive catalysts in infrastructure, have resulted in overall weak demand. Meanwhile, PVC's share in emerging sectors like medical and packaging remains low, unable to compensate for the demand gap in real estate. Weak demand may become the new normal for the industry.

Regarding exports, India's PVC demand has shown sustained growth in recent years, with an annual demand gap reaching 3 million tons, making it heavily reliant on imports. China's share of India's PVC imports has surged from 7.3% in 2020 to 50.9% in 2024. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative PVC exports reached 3.3941 million tons, a 47.78% year-on-year increase, effectively absorbing the continuously expanding production capacity. Notably, exports to India totaled 1.215 million tons, accounting for 41.6% of total exports, establishing India as the core export market for domestic PVC. China's PVC exports to India are projected to increase by 200,000 to 300,000 tons in Q4 2025, which will effectively alleviate inventory pressure and improve the oversupply situation in China's domestic market.

Regarding costs, recent declines in oil and coal prices have weakened PVC's cost support. As of November 17, PVC prices fell below the cost line, resulting in industry-wide losses. The sector may face a new round of capacity adjustments, with high-cost facilities likely to be phased out. Overall, the PVC industry faces dual pressures: collapsing cost support coupled with sluggish demand recovery.

In the short term, sustained PVC supply growth, weak demand, and heavy inventory pressure limit upward price momentum. However, PVC currently trades at low valuations, with bearish factors largely priced in, leaving limited downside potential.

Comprehensively, PVC's near-term weakness persists, with the market operating within a volatile range.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 20, the benchmark price of PVC on SunSirs was 4412.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.35% compared with the beginning of the month (4565.00 RMB/ton).

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