According to China Chemical News, the compound fertilizer market has recently maintained strong performance. Low-end quotations for balanced-ratio products have been gradually withdrawn, shifting the transaction focus upward, with noticeable price differentials emerging for spring-season fertilizers.

On the raw material front, monoammonium phosphate prices have surged recently, with single-nutrient value now reaching 66 RMB—the highest point this year. Among nitrogen fertilizers, urea has seen frequent fluctuations lately. Market supply remains ample with daily output at 204,400 tons, but demand has been slow to follow, keeping short-term prices within a narrow range. Potash prices show a slight upward trend, with higher prices in northern regions and lower in southern areas, amid tight supply. Overall, raw material costs are keeping compound fertilizer production expenses elevated, though the rate of increase has moderated.

Meanwhile, balanced fertilizers are more directly impacted by fluctuations in phosphorus and potassium prices. In contrast, nitrogen-potassium fertilizers (used for spring green-up) remain relatively stable due to steady nitrogen supply, showing minimal price changes. The delayed application schedule for autumn wheat fertilizers, coupled with concentrated shipments from the Northeast market, has created an unusual off-season demand for compound fertilizers.

Recall that in early November 2024, both compound fertilizer capacity utilization and inventory showed upward trends, signaling the start of winter stockpiling by enterprises. In contrast, current capacity utilization and inventory continue to decline. On one hand, production in some major producing regions is constrained by environmental policies, limiting output. On the other hand, rising raw material costs prompt enterprises to adopt cautious production scheduling. Additionally, enterprises are actively fulfilling earlier low-priced orders, further reducing inventory levels. This marks a departure from previous years' patterns in compound fertilizer supply for Q4 2025.

On the demand side, spring plowing next year will drive significant compound fertilizer usage. Some downstream users will opt to concentrate deliveries after the Spring Festival holiday to mitigate risks. However, with the 2026 Lunar New Year falling later than usual, delayed deliveries post-holiday will inevitably lead to supply shortages, placing substantial pressure on both production and transportation. Therefore, from now until January next year, the primary task for compound fertilizer enterprises will be to distribute inventory downstream. However, due to the prolonged uncertainty in raw material prices, market operations will be conducted with greater caution. This has become a point of tension in the compound fertilizer market and represents a variable factor in subsequent market operations.

Considering both cost and supply-demand dynamics, while localized price increases have accelerated shipments in some areas, most markets require clearer market conditions before favorable operations can resume. In the short term, compound fertilizer prices will continue to experience minor fluctuations and consolidation.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 18, the benchmark price of monoammonium phosphate on SunSirs was 3,620.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 7.63% compared with the beginning of the month (3,363.33 RMB/ton).

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