According to Sina Finance, multiple factors including tariff policy disruptions, subsidy policies depleting future demand, and constrained consumer willingness and capacity have collectively resulted in insufficient overall improvement in PS end-user demand throughout 2025. This has gradually triggered negative feedback across all segments of the industrial chain. Concurrently, new capacity releases and market share competition have further expanded PS supply volumes, maintaining sustained pressure on the supply-demand structure. The ongoing downward shift in PS industry costs is creating downward pressure, with PS prices hitting new lows throughout 2025.

With costs persistently declining and supply-demand imbalances persisting, PS suppliers face stubbornly high inventories. Prices maintained a one-way downward trajectory throughout the year. By early November 2025, the closing price for general-purpose polystyrene in East China had fallen to 6,975 RMB/ton, marking a year-on-year decline of 28.09%. During the year, the low-end price of major circulating grades briefly hit a historic low of 6,850 RMB/ton.

Supply-side data indicates that China's PS capacity expansion in 2025 is projected to grow by 16.52% year-on-year, with production volume expected to increase by 5.74%. By November 2025, the industry had added 80,000 tons of new capacity, including: - Phase III of Saibolong's 360,000-ton facility - Liwan New Materials' 80,000-ton capacity upgrade - Guangxi Petrochemical's 20,000-ton expansion By year-end, China's total PS production capacity is projected to reach 8.04 million tons.

In 2025, sustained downward pressure on raw material prices led to gradually declining PS production costs, resulting in phased profit improvements for manufacturers. Coupled with market share competition, domestic PS producers saw renewed enthusiasm for production. Continued capacity expansion has bolstered domestic self-sufficiency rates, while the steady release of new capacity further drives the growth of domestic supply.

While PS capacity steadily climbs, domestic output also shows an annual upward trend, driving continuous growth in self-sufficiency rates. However, amid the broader capacity expansion, the increase in commodity grades is prominent, and homogenized competition intensifies. Consequently, exporters actively explore overseas markets. Further breakthroughs in export volumes partially alleviate supply excess pressures in major production areas and support phased improvements in certain market demands.

Customs data indicates that from January to September 2025, China's PS exports totaled 241,400 metric tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 49.44%. Total exports are projected to exceed 300,000 metric tons by year-end, with the peak export volume occurring in May at 32,300 metric tons.

From January to May this year, the PS industry demonstrated robust profitability. Manufacturers resumed operations and maintained stable production, leading to a sustained increase in domestic PS supply. As costs declined consecutively, PS prices followed suit, gradually revealing their price advantage. Exporters actively expanded into overseas markets, driving May's monthly exports to a record high. Although the absolute volume growth of exports was limited, it partially alleviated the temporary supply pressure in the commodity grade market.

Insufficient demand improvement hindered suppliers' ability to effectively reduce inventories, contributing to the decline in PS prices.

Driven by high-end, energy-efficient, and intelligent upgrades, the white goods industry maintained relatively steady growth in 2025. As a key downstream consumer sector for PS, it provided effective demand support for the PS market, particularly in the first half of the year. However, export and policy impacts have placed short-term pressure on overseas demand, with only some leading enterprises maintaining stable performance. Factors such as the depletion of “trade-in” demand have led to a marginal weakening of domestic demand. Consequently, against the backdrop of weaker-than-expected demand improvement in the white goods sector during the second half of the year, shipments of mid-to-high-end PS resources have been hindered, dragging down market prices.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to September 2025, cumulative production growth rates for refrigerators and air conditioners—key PS consumption sectors—were 1.5% and 4.4% year-on-year, respectively, but these growth rates declined by 6 and 3.6 percentage points compared to 2024. Customs data shows that January-September exports of refrigerators and air conditioners increased by 1.6% and 0.7% year-on-year, respectively, with growth rates declining by 20.2 and 24.8 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024.

Entering the fourth quarter this year, as PS price levels continued to decline, the market gradually demonstrated resilience against further drops, supported by essential restocking demand from some leading enterprises at lower price points.

In 2026, China's PS market is expected to follow a trajectory of initial low-level rebound followed by fluctuating declines, with the annual average price projected to fall compared to 2025. The benchmark price for international crude oil may continue to decline in 2026, and market prices for bulk chemical products are anticipated to drop. The upstream markets for pure benzene and the primary raw material styrene are also expected to follow a pattern of rising first and then falling, meaning PS cost support may strengthen initially before weakening. From a supply-demand perspective, concentrated new capacity releases will persist in 2026, potentially pressuring the PS supply side. With expectations for end-demand improvement remaining moderate, the extent of any low-level rebound may be somewhat constrained.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 18, the PS benchmark price on SunSirs stood at RMB7,516.67 per ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

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