Hai Zheng Futures said that looking at the year as a whole, lithium hydroxide may continue the pattern of strong demand. Based on the data of increasing supply and demand, it is expected that the supply will be less than the demand in November. The demand side's high prosperity gives lithium prices some support.

Today (November 10th), the futures price of lithium carbonate continued to rise in the morning session. As of the time of writing, the main contract of lithium carbonate (ICM) rose by 6%, reaching 86,300 RMB/ton, breaking through the October 30th high point (highest 84,940) and approaching the year's high point, which stimulated the lithium mining stocks such as Tianhua New Energy and Shengxin Lithium to also perform strongly.

The rise in this round of lithium prices is driven by the demand and supply of lithium carbonate in China. According to the research reports of multiple institutions, there is a current imbalance between demand and supply of lithium carbonate and there is a trend of expansion.

The latest research report from East Asia Futures estimated that the total supply of lithium carbonate in October would be 112,060 tons, with a total demand of 124,642 tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of -12,582 tons. In November, the total supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be 111,880 tons, with a total demand of 128,725 tons, leading to a supply-demand gap of -16,845 tons.

On the supply side, currently all 8 lithium mining companies in Yichun City have submitted the report on the verification of the storage capacity of the changed mineral species, and it is expected that the probability of production suspension in Jiangxi mines is low. In addition, the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources issued the "Notice of the Jiangxi Yifeng County Zhongkouli-Fengxin County Jianxiawo Mine (Resource Quantity that has been Exploited but not Paid for) Mining Rights Transfer Income Appraisal Report", with a public display period of 10 working days, and in addition to paying taxes, parallel approval of environmental and safety assessments, submitting mining permit applications and obtaining permits, it is expected that the probability of Jianxiawo's resumption of production within the year is small, which dispelled the supply concerns caused by its resumption of production.

The rise in demand is expected to further provide price support. Haizheng Futures stated that the production of storage battery cells is fully scheduled, among which independent storage has made a significant contribution to the increase. The "Special Action Plan for the Large-scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025-2027)" has set installation targets that also provide positive guidance for the growth of storage scale, and the overseas benefits of the incentive policy of subsidies have also released incremental demand. New energy vehicles are in the peak season of production and sales, and due to the recovery of the purchase tax to half reduction next year, it may trigger a wave of demand prefront, so it is expected that the demand for new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025 will maintain a high prosperity. The main vehicle manufacturers are actively stockpiling power battery cells, thus boosting the purchase of lithium carbonate by the positive material manufacturers.

In terms of inventory, lithium carbonate continues to see a significant drawdown. According to SMM data, as of November 6th, the total lithium carbonate sample weekly inventory was 124,000 tons, a decrease of 3,405 tons compared to October 30th.

Hai Zheng Futures said that looking at the year as a whole, lithium hydroxide demand is likely to continue the strong pattern. Based on the data of increasing supply and demand, it is expected that the supply will be less than the demand in November. The supply and demand are still expected to be in a state of tight supply (Even if large factories resume production, the supply and demand situation will still be tight, but the degree of tightness will ease.). The high prosperity of the demand side gives the lithium price some support. At the same time, because the overseas lithium mine is still expanding and new projects are in production; and there are also new resource capacities in China, the pressure of supply growth will increase the price fluctuation as the price rises.

West China Securities also said that some demand was released ahead of schedule to the fourth quarter of this year due to the expectation of a halved purchase tax policy next year, and the production scheduling of heavy trucks, passenger vehicles and light trucks' electric projects was concentrated, which led to a significant increase in lithium battery orders. The new energy vehicle market is rapidly growing in both commercial and passenger vehicle segments, and the storage market is showing a pattern of strong demand and supply, continuously driving the demand for lithium battery materials. Overall, the expectation of a decline in inventory supported by demand will provide a solid support for the bottom price, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain strong in the short term.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.