Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of October 27, the average reference price of domestic urea market was 1,625 RMB/ton, compared with the average reference price of 1,621 RMB/ton on October 1, the domestic urea market price increased by 0.23%.

Analysis review 

Supply and Demand

This month, domestic urea prices initially fell before rising. In the first half of the month, domestic urea prices declined. Poor futures prices, ample market supply, and weak downstream demand weakened the urea market. In the middle of the month, domestic urea prices saw a slight upward fluctuation. With the futures market strengthening and autumn procurement nearing its end, downstream buyers sought urea at low prices, creating a positive market trading atmosphere. In the second half of the month, domestic urea prices continued to rise. The urea futures market strengthened, and the spot market followed suit.

Market conditions

As of October 27, the urea market price in Shandong region was around 1,570-1,630 RMB/ton, the urea market price in Hebei region was around 1,570-1,630 RMB/ton, the urea market price in Henan region was around 1,540-1,600 RMB/ton, and the urea market price in Liaoning region was around 1,600 RMB/ton.

According to SunSirs data, from July 28, 2024 to October 20, 2025, domestic urea prices experienced both ups and downs during the period. In October, the largest drop in domestic urea prices was -2.85% in the week of October 6, and the largest increase was 1.27% in the week of October 20.

Market outlook

Urea analysts at SunSirs believe that the urea market was experiencing strong gains recently. As of October 27, the urea market was experiencing positive trading sentiment, with increased downstream inquiries. However, following the continuous upward trend, market caution was growing. Urea inventories remained high, and industrial and agricultural demand remained insufficient. Domestic urea prices are expected to remain consolidated in the short term.

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