BizNews, October 28th. Rabobank recently released a report stating that Brazil's share of the global pulp market is expected to increase to 34% by 2030, 6 percentage points higher than the current level, driven by the commissioning of new mills and the increased competitiveness of Brazilian short fibers. China remains the primary destination for Brazilian pulp, but the expansion of China's integrated pulp and paper production is likely to reduce imports in the coming years, creating space for increased Brazilian exports to the United States (currently the second-largest buyer).

The article points out that Brazil's pulp production capacity is expected to increase to 34% of the global market by 2030 due to the commissioning of new mills and the improved competitiveness of short fibers, which will increase global supply. At the same time, the expansion of China's integrated pulp and paper production is likely to reduce demand for Brazilian pulp imports. While export opportunities exist in the US market, the risk of oversupply is increasing, putting downward pressure on pulp spot prices. According to the latest futures data (October 27, 2025), the closing price of the main pulp contract, such as 2607, was 5,298 RMB/ton (up 10 basis points). However, the expected increase in long-term supply may curb futures price increases and trigger selling pressure in the market. Overall, the short-term outlook is neutral to weak, and the long-term trend is clearly bearish.

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