Ethylene glycol prices moved downward in October, with signs of stabilizing last week 

Last week, ethylene glycol prices initially fell before rising, showing signs of stabilizing. According to data from SunSirs, as of October 24, the average domestic price of oil-based ethylene glycol was 4,276.67 RMB/ton, down 2.47% from the average price of 4,385 RMB/ton on October 1.

In terms of port ethylene glycol, the basis of the port ethylene glycol spot contract (starting from 500 tons) was generally strong, and the basis transaction volume of last week's contract had increased significantly; as of October 24, the actual transaction range of last week's contract basis was: +95 to +107, up 20-35 from last week.

Domestic spot prices for coal-based polyester-grade ethylene glycol (bulk, tax included, self-pickup) ranged from 3,830 to 4,030 RMB/ton per truckload.

Regarding international ethylene glycol, as of October 24th, recent cargoes were negotiated at around $488 to $491/ton.

The main reasons for the recent stabilization of ethylene glycol prices:

1. News of major East China manufacturers switching production in November

New variables had emerged on the supply side. Market rumors say that a large factory in East China plans to shut down and switch production in November. The market was gradually absorbing Yulong Petrochemical's supply, and the expected pressure on domestic supply had eased.

2. Inventory data fell

On October 23, 2025, total ethylene glycol inventories at major ports in East China reached 483,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the 513,000 tons recorded on October 20. Weekly port arrivals declined, shattering expectations of continued inventory accumulation.

3. International crude oil prices rose sharply

On October 23, 2025, international crude oil futures prices surged. Light sweet crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $3.29, or 5.62%, to close at $61.79 per barrel. London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose $3.40, or 5.43%, to close at $65.99 per barrel. The sharp rise in raw material prices impacted investors' expectations for the ethylene glycol market.

There is a high probability that ethylene glycol prices will weaken first and then strengthen in October

Overall ethylene glycol port inventories remained relatively low, and spot supply pressure was temporarily low. The recent price decline was primarily due to strong domestic supply expectations, high overseas imports arriving at ports, a lack of appetite for stockpiling at downstream retailers, strong inventory data, and market trading ahead of weak fundamental expectations. Prices had fallen significantly, with recent signs of stabilization. The market remained cautious about the strength of bullish support. Ethylene glycol is expected to bottom out and rebound in the short term, with a high probability of prices initially weakening before strengthening in October.

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