Xinhua Finance in Beijing on September 19th reported that the latest research report from Huatai Securities pointed out that the FOMC as a whole met expectations, and the dot plot shows that there will be two more interest rate cuts this year. However, the implementation of the interest rate cut may bring about the pressure of "selling the facts" for gold. Therefore, be cautious about chasing the shorts in the short term, and the gold price may stage a "selling the facts" in the short term, but in the long term, gold still has config value, and it is worth buying at a low level.
The institution specifically pointed out that the Fed's FOMC meeting in September lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points as scheduled, and the dot plot showed that another 50 basis points of rate cuts are expected this year, which is in line with market expectations. In the short term, due to the fact that the interest rate cut benefit has been fully priced, gold may face a "sell fact" adjustment pressure. This interest rate cut belongs to a preventive interest rate cut. Referring to the situation after the interest rate cut in September 2024, gold prices may form a "phased" top after a certain period of time after the interest rate cut. However, the medium and long-term value of gold allocation remains unchanged: on the one hand, the Fed continues the interest rate cut path under the background of economic upturn and inflation stickiness, and the long-term concern of US economic stagnation and inflation still exists. On the other hand, in an era of global pattern reshaping, the trend of de-dollaring, geopolitical risks and the demand for portfolio diversification are all driving global central banks and institutional investors to continue to increase their allocation of gold. This structural change in demand provides a solid bottom support for gold prices. The long-term upward trend of gold may continue, and it is still recommended to buy gold at low levels. It is recommended to pay attention to gold stocks with both growth and valuation advantages.
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