Price trend
The commodity market analysis system of SunSirs shows that the center of polyester filament prices has been partially raised. As of August 15, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6,600-6,900 RMB/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7,800-8,050 RMB/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7,000-7,200 RMB/ton.
Analysis review
On the cost side, international crude oil futures rose 1.77% on August 15th (WTI at $63.96/barrel, Brent at $66.84/barrel). Paraxylene (PX) prices also rose to $833.67/ton, with PTA (polyester material) prices being passed on to the polyester (PET) industry. The PTA futures settlement price rose 0.6% to 4,708 RMB/ton. The crude oil rebound boosted confidence. PTA processing fees rose to over 200 RMB/ton, while FDY cash flow losses remained at -487 RMB/ton. Manufacturers raised prices to restore profit margins.
On the supply and demand front, polyester mills maintained high operating rates exceeding 90%. However, leading companies were regulating the market through concentrated production cuts (for example, FDY capacity utilization was below the industry average). Coupled with limited new capacity additions in August (only partial units at companies like Tongkun and Xinfengming had come online), supply pressures temporarily eased. End-user textile orders had yet to rebound substantially, with weaving companies holding greige fabric inventories reaching 36.8 days, with purchases primarily driven by essential needs. Mid-to-late August marks the end of the traditional off-season, and the strength of any demand recovery will depend on the launch of orders during the "Golden September and Silver October" shopping season. With a prevailing mentality of buying high and not buying low, manufacturers were creating expectations of price increases through continuous price increases, forcing downstream suppliers to passively purchase goods.
Market outlook
SunSirs believes that the market is in a game period between weak reality and strong expectations, and is expected to run steadily and slightly stronger, with crude oil fluctuations narrowing (Brent US$66.59 per barrel) and the impact on the cost side weakening; if the downstream "Golden September and Silver October" stocking is started, polyester filament prices may rise slightly, but in the short term, the upward space is limited.
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