According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price trend of polyester filament on May 19 showed a trend of consolidation or center of gravity stabilization. From May 9 to 12, driven by the rise in international oil prices and polyester raw material costs, the price of polyester filament rose widely. As of May 19, the mainstream polyester filament factory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang POY (150D/48F) quoted 6950-7200 RMB/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) quoted 8000-8400 RMB/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) quoted 7300-7400 RMB/ton.

Cost factors: The adjustment of Sino-US tariffs has driven the rapid rise in oil prices. The rise in crude oil prices has driven up the prices of polyester filament raw materials such as PTA and MEG. As an important raw material for polyester filament, the price increase of PTA has greatly increased the production cost of polyester filament. In order to maintain profit margins, companies have raised the prices of polyester filament products. The concentrated maintenance of major PX factories in the second quarter has tightened the spot supply of PX. As an important raw material for polyester filament, the price of PTA has risen by more than 2% in half a month. The cost side has supported the price of polyester filament, which has driven its price to rise.

Supply and demand factors: From the perspective of supply, some polyester factories have plans to reduce production. The three major filament factories have decided to implement the production reduction of loss-making varieties, reducing the market supply and supporting prices to a certain extent. From the perspective of demand, May is the traditional seasonal off-season, and the demand growth of downstream weaving enterprises is limited. In addition, due to the low-price replenishment in the early stage, the downstream has entered the stage of digesting inventory in the short term, and the enthusiasm for purchasing polyester filament has declined. However, industry leaders such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong Refining and Chemical have equipment maintenance and capacity reduction, which has reduced market supply and supported prices.

Macro factors: The central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, the policy interest rate was also lowered, and market liquidity increased, which theoretically boosted the price of polyester filament to a certain extent. At the same time, the improvement of Sino-US trade relations and the positive market expectations also supported the price of polyester filament to a certain extent.

SunSirs predicts that in the short term, under the background of cost support and tightening supply, the price of polyester filament is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term, or be stable and strong. However, if the orders in the textile and garment industry fail to increase significantly, the market may still face upward resistance.

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