Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde slightly decreased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 7,800.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 7,500.00 RMB/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.85%, and the weekend price increased by 15.38% year-on-year.

On November 13th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 37.99 points, a decrease of 0.08 points from the previous day, a decrease of 64.02% from the cycle's highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 26.13% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

Analysis review

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde had slightly decreased this week, resulting in low inventory. The factory quotation for Lihuayi’s isobutyraldehyde over the weekend was 7,500 RMB/ton, a decrease of 200 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng’s isobutyraldehyde factory quoted 7,500 RMB/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 500 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the week; Shandong Zhenkun had a weekend distribution quotation of 7,500 RMB/ton for Luxi Chemical’s isobutyraldehyde, a decrease of 200 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell this week. The price increased from 7,090.75 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 7,270.75 RMB/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.54%, and the weekend price decreased by 0.82% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices had slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol had slightly declined, dropping from 10,525.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 10,375.00 RMB/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.43%, and the weekend price had increased by 7.33% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol had slightly declined, and downstream demand had weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

Market outlook

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in mid to late November may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol had slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm had weakened. The upstream propylene market had shown a downward trend over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. SunSirs’ isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

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