Price trend

According to data monitored by SunSirs, the domestic carbon black market prices were relatively stronger at the end of June. On June 30th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 9,033 RMB/ton. In the first half of 2023, the domestic carbon black market showed a significant decline followed by a rebound trend. On January 1st, the price of carbon black was 12,050 RMB/ton, and on June 30th, it was 9,033 RMB/ton. The highest price was 12,050 RMB/ton, which appeared in January and the lowest point was 7,900 RMB/ton, which appeared in May.

Phase 1 (1.1-2.28): Weak oscillation operation, slightly decreasing

From January to February this year, the overall performance of raw materials was weak, with mixed ups and downs. Downstream enterprises did not have significant positive effects, and their enthusiasm for purchasing in the market was not high. Under the game of raw material fluctuations and downstream demand drag, the carbon black market was weaker.

Phase 2 (3.1-5.25): Significant downward phase

From March to May, there was a significant decline in raw materials, with no support available. Prices fell significantly in March, and the decline continued to expand in April. According to the price data of SunSirs, the market price of domestic high-temperature coal tar fell sharply from April 12 to May 12, falling from 4,750 RMB/ton to 2,652.50 RMB/ton, down 44.16% in the cycle. Industrial naphthalene, anthracene oil, washing oil and coal tar pitch were the main commodities in the deep processing industry of coal tar. Since the beginning of 2023, the price of deep processing commodities had basically kept pace with the trend of tar. In the early stage, the price of coal tar plunged sharply, which was also mainly affected by the sharp drop in the prices of these four commodities. In addition, enterprises had a large inventory backlog, which depressed the market price of coal tar and reduced the auction price in many regions.

The third stage (5.25-6.30): callback stage, with upward trend fluctuations

In the middle and late May, the auction price of the domestic high-temperature coal tar market rose sharply, and the auction price of each main production area rose to a certain extent. Some coke enterprises rose more than 1,000 RMB, which strongly supported the cost of carbon black. The situation turned into an upward trend. In early June, the auction price of domestic coal tar rose and fell, and the carbon black market maintained stable operation.

Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the raw material coal tar may be temporarily stable at a high level, while the downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises are slightly weak in receiving high price coal tar, and their enthusiasm for receiving goods may be weakened. The traditional off-season for tire companies has not yet ended, and downstream tire sales pressure is not decreasing. There are currently many bearish factors in the carbon black market, and in the second half of 2023, the carbon black market prices may show a trend of weak range fluctuations.

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