Although most non-ferrous metals declined, copper and gold prices were relatively strong. Among them, copper increased by 2.93% in the first half of the year, basic metal nickel decreased by 31.21% in the second half of the year, and zinc decreased by 15.72%.

Copper (+2.93%):

In the first half of the year, global copper concentrate and domestic refined copper supply were loose. However, due to the resilience of demand in traditional fields and strong demand in emerging fields, coupled with reverse substitution of domestic refined waste, global refined copper inventory remained low, and the balance sheet showed that low inventory would continue. In the second half of the year, there is a high probability that global copper supply will remain loose on the supply side, and high profits will boost the enthusiasm of refining enterprises to start operations. Although affected by device maintenance, domestic refined copper production is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the second half of the year. On the demand side, the weak overseas economy will continue to suppress local copper consumption. However, the impact of domestic policies increases, and copper consumption is expected to gradually improve, especially in photovoltaic, wind power and alternative fuel vehicle related to new energy. Against the backdrop of global copper oversupply, the upward trend of copper prices in the second half of the year will not be too strong. Overall, the volatility at high levels is the main trend, and the copper price trend in the second half of the year should still follow this logic. In the traditional low consumption season in China in July and August, prices will be slightly weaker, while in the traditional peak season in September and October, copper prices will rebound, and weak volatility will be the main trend in November and December.

Nickel (-31.21%)

In the first half of the year, nickel supply was sufficient, while the traditional consumer industry remained sluggish. Although data from emerging industries was still available, the proportion was relatively small, and support for nickel prices was limited. The second half of the year, from June to November, is the rainy season in the Philippines. During this period, nickel supply is expected to decrease, which is beneficial for nickel prices. However, it is difficult to improve terminal demand. The recovery of traditional industries is relatively slow, and the momentum for nickel prices to rebound is insufficient. According to the annual price patterns of SunSirs, on the one hand, due to the arrival of the rainy season in the Philippines; On the other hand, supported by the traditional peak seasons of September and October, nickel prices in the second half of the year may be slightly better than those in the first half. However, in the context of the overall economic downturn, it is expected that nickel prices will not increase significantly, with prices fluctuating between 180,000 and 200,000 RMB/ton.

Rare earth (-31.6%):

Although the downstream rare earth industries such as automobiles and wind power had developed well in the first half of the year, it was difficult to boost the confidence of the rare earth market. The main reason is that magnetic material companies mainly consumed raw material inventory and had small procurement volumes. The overall decline in the rare earth market in the first half of the year was mainly due to the decline of the rare earth market. The recent global economic situation was not optimistic, and China's exports were subject to certain restrictions. In addition to the continuous development of foreign rare earth industries, there is still significant downward pressure on rare earth prices in the short term. In the third quarter, rare earth prices may still be mainly subject to weak adjustments, and the fourth quarter will enter the peak season of the rare earth industry, with some growth in production and sales. In addition, with the continuous high-speed development of new energy, new materials, energy conservation and environmental protection industries, there is still a gap in domestic rare earth demand, the development prospects of the rare earth industry are still broad, and the rare earth market may experience an upward trend in the fourth quarter.

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