Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 3,354 RMB/ton on January 1 and 3,418 RMB/ton on January 31, with an increase of 1.91% during the period, and down 3.99% from December 1.

Analysis review

In January, the spot rapeseed meal fluctuated to be stronger in a narrow range. Since January 2023, the import of rapeseed has increased significantly, the oil plant has started to rise sharply, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to increase. The meal futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were positive, and the spot price of rapeseed meal increased slightly. The oil price was weak, and the market was in a strong mood to support the high price of rapeseed meal. After the Spring Festival, there was a demand for replenishment at the breeding terminal, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was large. The advantage of rapeseed meal substitution was obvious, which was good for the price of rapeseed meal.

External market trend: Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed higher on Monday, with the benchmark period closing up about 2.5%. By the end of the closing period, the futures contracts had closed up about 20.20 Canada dollars and closed at 827.90 Canadian dollars/ton; The May futures contracts closed up about 19.30 Canadian dollars/ton and closed at 826.80 Canadian dollars/ton; The July futures contracts ended up about 19 Canadian dollars/ton higher at 828.70 Canadian dollars/ton.

In terms of soybean meal: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average market price of soybean meal was 4,682 RMB/ton on January 1, and 4,670 RMB/ton on January 31, with a decline of 0.26% during the period. At the end of January, the spot price of soybean meal had an upward trend, boosting the market of rapeseed meal.

Market outlook

Large quantities of imported rapeseed have arrived at the port, and the supply of rapeseed meal is loose. It is expected that the price of rapeseed meal will be volatile and weaker, with limited upside space.

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