SunSirs: Energy, China Methanol Spot Market starts to Decline

1. Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, domestic methanol spot market is narrowed down. As of December 10, the average price of domestic methanol market is 2,125 RMB/ton. Prices fell 1.53% month on month and 12.55% year on year.

1. Market analysis

Products: the performances of domestic methanol market era different, and the port market price rises first and then falls. In the domestic spot market, the dealers' wait-and-see mentality is obvious at the beginning of the week. Prices in some regions are temporarily stable, and local demand is weak. The northwest guidance price has declined by 20 RMB/ton, which needs to pay attention to the transmission to the mainland market. In the port market, the futures market surged higher and fell back, driving the fluctuation of the spot market, but on the whole, it moved up slightly compared with the previous period.

Freight: domestic methanol freight is arranged. For the part of Inner Mongolia North line to Lubei, the reference price is 140-240 RMB/ton; for South line to Lubei, the reference is 150-180 RMB/ton; for Guanzhong to Lubei, the reference is 110-170 RMB/ton; for Guanzhong to southwest, the reference is 160-180 RMB/ton; for Shanxi to Lubei, the reference is 90-180 RMB/ton. The reference price from Xinjiang to Lubei is 650 RMB/ton, and from Ningxia to Lubei is 190-210 RMB/ton. North line of Inner Mongolia to Hebei is 160-190 RMB/ton. Local heavy fog weather in winter, pay attention to vehicle operation.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: domestic formaldehyde enterprises offer temporarily stable. The methanol market in the upstream has a narrow range, which has little impact on the formaldehyde market. The downstream market is subject to environmental protection regulation, and the overall start-up has declined, the demand has shrunk significantly, and the overall transaction is light.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is weak. Although the profit of acetic acid is small, the spot market is still oversupplied, and the spot manufacturers compete passively in price reduction. The short-term market fundamentals tend to be negative and hard to change. The transaction in acetic acid market is insufficient. Wait and see the inventory accumulation of each manufacturer. The weakness of acetic acid market continues.

Dimethyl ether (DME): the domestic price of DME is stable as a whole, and the transaction situation slightly cooled. Except for the two lakes area, the sales of DME in the North may gradually return to steady state in the near future. Due to the terminal consumption inventory, the recent transactions are rarely active, and the price is mostly stable.

1. Market Forecast

From the perspective of SunSirs: on the positive side, olefins: the load of an olefin unit in Shandong has been increased, and raw materials have been purchased in the near future; crude oil: OPEC + has reached an agreement on production reduction in the first quarter of next year, which will support the storage of energy chemical products. On the negative side, demand: the local demand is weak, and the real price is declining; supply: some early-stage parking devices are recovered, and the local supply is increased; main production area: the northwest guidance price is declining, or transmitted to the mainland market. According to the methanol analysts of SunSirs, the short-term domestic methanol market performances are different, and the spot market in some areas is expected to decline. In addition, smog and snowfall occur frequently in winter in the north, so it is necessary to pay attention to vehicle transportation.

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