SunSirs: Low Inventory of Coking Coal and Coke Expands Downstream Positive Information in China

Last week, coking coal and coke rose violently. Coke closed at 2,819 RMB/ ton last Friday, up 191 RMB/ ton from 2,628 RMB/ ton on Friday of the previous week; Coking coal closed at 2,155 RMB/ ton last Friday, up 230.5 RMB/ ton from 1,924.5 RMB/ ton on Friday the previous week. Last week, the steel production was 8.831 million tons, with a month on month decrease of 13,000 tons; The total steel inventory was 18.3593 million tons, a month on month decrease of 1.1245 million tons, of which the social inventory was 13.2157 million tons, a month on month decrease of 583,300 tons, the steel plant inventory was 5.1436 million tons, a month on month decrease of 541,200 tons, the output decreased less last week, the destocking range was large, and the demand side recovery was expected to increase.

In the future, the Fed's interest rate hike has landed, macro sentiment has improved, and future double focus expectations follow fundamental changes. The recent proposal of the property guarantee policy has increased the expectation of the recovery of the real estate market, and the future market demand may increase. At present, the inventory of coking coal in steel plants and coking plants is running at a low level, which has led to the amplification of the impact of the positive information of downstream demand on the price, and the coking coal price has led the rise in the black system. Coke inventory is also at a low level. Coke may continue to rise when coking enterprises suffer serious losses and downstream demand recovery is expected to continue. But at the same time, we need to pay attention to the relevant situation of Australian coal. The uncertainty of Australian coal increases the risk of coking coal. It is expected to show a volatile upward trend this week, because the price rose sharply last Thursday, and there is a possibility of retreat.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.