SunSirs: Affected by the Macro Data Turn, Copper Prices Fell Sharply (June 20-24)
June 27 2022 13:55:31 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 64,323.33 RMB/ton, down 6.51% from 68,805 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and down 6.3% year-on-year.
According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, in the past three months, copper prices rose in 5 weeks and fell in 7 weeks. Recently, copper prices have continued to decline.
Analysis review
The initial value of the manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States in June fell more than expected, indicating that the demand for industrial products shrank significantly in June, which intensified the market's concerns about the economic downturn. Recently, the "copper-oil ratio" has continued to decline and has fallen to a nearly 5-year low, indicating that the risk of economic recession has increased. On the whole, under the circumstance of tightening liquidity and continued fear of economic recession, the non-ferrous sector has fallen sharply, and the price of copper has also dropped sharply.
Fundamentally, the current supply of concentrates is generally good, the spot processing fee is stable, and the demand is flat. Although the short-term price drop has obviously promoted consumption, the repair of terminal demand is not obvious, the short-term repair of consumption is difficult to continue, and the supply will increase in the future, and the spot support is expected to continue to weaken.
Market outlook
It is expected that the copper price will still fluctuate and weak in the short term, but it has now reached a relatively low level, and the bottom of 60,000 RMB/ton may have support.
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