SunSirs: The Price of Refined Petroleum Coke continued to fall last Week (November 11-15)

1. Price Trend

Last week (11.11-11.15), the price of refined petroleum coke continued to fall. According to the data of SunSirs, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1,105.75 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and 1,062.00 RMB/ton at the end of the week, down 43.75 RMB/ton in the week and down - 1.33% in the week.

On November 15, the petroleum coke commodity index was 82.60, down 2.82 points from the previous day, down 46.91% from 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 23.49% higher than the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: last week, the delivery of local refined petroleum coke was average, the delivery of medium and high sulfur coke was blocked, and the prices of some refineries fell slightly. Last week, Kenli Petrochemical started coking and petroleum coke began to be sold normally.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, WTI crude oil in the United States was $57.24 /barrel at the beginning of the week, $56.77 /barrel at the end of the week, up or down by -0.82%; Brent crude oil was 62.51 / barrel at the beginning of the week, $62.28 /barrel at the end of the week, up or down by - 0.37%. OPEC countries were expected to continue to expand the scale of production reduction, and U.S. crude oil inventory growth, with production reaching a record high. Downstream: the market performance of calcined coke and electrolytic aluminum was average, and the policy of limiting production in heating season would be implemented in November. According to the data of SunSirs, as of October 11, the average market price of aluminum (99.70) was 13,946.67 RMB/ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are three kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top 3 of which are liquefied natural gas (LNG) (3.27%), MTBE (1.23%) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (0.34%). There are ten kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with methanol (- 4.10%), petroleum coke (- 3.96%) and dimethyl ether (DME) (- 2.98%) as the top 3 products. Last week, the average increase and decrease was -0.57%

3. Market Forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke of SunSirs predicted that in November, the heating season starts in November and production is limited. The downstream demand is limited. It is expected that the price of ground refined petroleum coke will decline in the near future, and the fluctuation price range may be around 900-1,100 RMB/ton.

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