SunSirs: Market Demand is Good, Cement Price in East China is Rising

1. Price Trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, since November, although the weather turned cold, it is still sunny, the cement market demand is good, the sales is rising. On November 1, the price of cement in East China was 489.6 RMB/ ton, and on November 13, the price was 509.80 RMB/ ton, an increase of 4.13%.

2. Market Analysis

Products: since September, the peak season has come, the demand for cement has been rising, and the price has continued to rise. After entering November, the demand and sales are good, and the price continues to rise.

In terms of regions, in order to improve the profitability of Jiangsu Province, on November 7, major enterprises in Zhenjiang and Nanjing of Jiangsu Province notified the increase of cement price, with an increase of 20-30 RMB/ ton. On November 10, major enterprises in Huai'an, Lianyungang and Yancheng of Jiangsu Province notified the increase of cement price, with an increase of 20-30 RMB/ ton. In some regions of Jiangsu Province, affected by Shanghai International Import Expo, some manufacturers began to stagger peak production, the period was about 6-10 days.

In Zhejiang Province, the rainy weather decreased and the demand increased. On November 10, the cement prices of major manufacturers in Shaoxing, Hangzhou, Zhoushan, Ningbo, Jiaxing and other regions increased by 20-30 RMB/ ton.

In Anhui Province, driven by the rise of cement price in Nanjing, on November 9, the price of cement from major manufacturers in Chuzhou and Maanshan, Anhui Province increased by 20-30 RMB/ ton.

In Shanghai, although affected by the International Import Expo, there are still construction sites, and the demand for cement is rising. On November 7, major manufacturers in Shanghai notified the cement price to be increased, with an increase of 20 RMB/ ton.

In Shandong Province, the cement price rose due to the impact of peak staggering. On November 7, the cement prices of some manufacturers in Qingdao, Yantai, Zaozhuang, Jinan and other regions in Shandong Province increased by 20 RMB/ ton. On November 12, cement prices of some manufacturers in Jining, Shandong Province increased by 50 RMB/ ton.

In Fujian Province, the weather is fine and the demand and sales are just right. On October 31, the price of cement of the main manufacturers in Fujian increased by 20 RMB/ ton.

Recently, the national cement market price continues to rise, and the upward trend of cement price is driven by multiple favorable factors. The first is that the weather turns cold, the rainy weather decreases, the cement market trading atmosphere is positive, the weather is sunny, which is conducive to cement transportation, the demand and sales volume of cement market is good, the cement manufacturers have obvious intention to increase the profit price, and near the end of the year, the construction site is in a hurry, and the cement inventory is declining rapidly The cement market in the East is up. Second, due to the impact of peak staggering, cement manufacturers stopped production more, resulting in further reduction of supply and further increase of favorable cement prices.

Industry chain: upstream: affected by the poor demand of the downstream steel plants and the accumulation of coke enterprises' inventory in the early stage, the domestic coke market has completed two rounds of increase and decrease, and the coke price in each region has decreased by about 100 y RMB/ ton. The overall market sentiment is still pessimistic. At present, due to the impact of environmental protection in Shanxi and other regions, the start-up of coke enterprises has declined, the profit of coke enterprises has dropped to a low level, and there is strong resistance to the reduction again. The coke inventory of downstream steel plants is still high, and the purchase and demand are mainly rigid. Some enterprises still intend to control the arrival of coke. Downstream: from January to August, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8,131.56 million square meters, up 8.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2% lower than that from January to July.

3. Market Forecast

According to the prediction of SunSirs, the demand and sales of cement market will be good in the middle and late November, and the current upward trend of cement in East China may still be maintained in the short term. With the gradual start of kiln shutdown and peak staggering, coupled with the pressure of environmental protection and production restriction, driven by multiple favorable factors, the cement product analysts of SunSirs believe that in a short time, the cement market will mainly rise by a small margin.

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